Sarah Palin's memoir: Why the math might not add up for HarperCollins
Filed under: Media, Wal-Mart Stores, Target Corp., Amazon.com, Inc., News Corp.
Love her or hate her, Sarah Palin, the former Alaska governor and Republican vice presidential candidate, is always a hot topic of conversation in the media. Her memoir, Going Rogue: An American Life, slated for release by News Corp.'s (NWS) HarperCollins next Tuesday, November 17, is no exception; it's been making news since the ink dried on the deal made last May. Going Rogue was one of 10 books selected for massive discounting by Amazon (AMZN), Walmart (WMT), and Target (TGT) in their ongoing price war. Palin made headlines last month when she revealed that HarperCollins had paid her a $1.25 million "retainer" sometime between January 1 and July 26, the day she stepped down as Alaska governor. Oprah Winfrey has her booked on her show next Monday, which the author will follow with a bus tour to far-flung corners of the country (or as she famously called them during the 2008 campaign, "the real America"). No less than three books about Palin are slated for publication around the same time, including a parody called Going Rouge: An American Nightmare.
So all signs seem to point to a season-saving bestseller for HarperCollins and for the book business: Pre-orders are rumored to surpass 40,000 copies, with more added to the estimate each day. But look past the top ranking on Amazon and the reported first printing of 1.5 million copies -- and the math may not add up in Palin's favor.
The $7 Million Woman?
The conventional wisdom on Palin's payment for Going Rogue is that she received a $7 million advance from HarperCollins (which hasn't commented). But what did she really get?
Until recently, publishers have long split writers' advances, paying half upon signing a contract with the writer, and the other half upon a book's publication. But with the complicated financials of conglomerates in the equation, many publishers now pay out advances in quarters: upon signing, upon delivery and acceptance of the manuscript, upon hardcover publication, and finally a year later, upon publication of the paperback.
The only HarperCollins contract that's been made public -- the original deal for O.J. Simpson's If I Did It, originally slated for publication in 2006 by Judith Regan's imprint (before it was shut down) -- suggests that HC pays authors in quarterly installments. For Going Rogue, the $1.25 million paid to Palin seems to account for her signing and her delivery and acceptance. That would mean Palin's getting two more payouts, with her cut of the final advance, minus fees to her literary attorney, Robert Barnett, somewhere between $2.5 million and $5 million.
Breaking Even at 400,000 Copies
O.J. Simpson's contract also broke the advance further -- it accounted for fees paid to ghostwriter Pablo Fenjves. Lynn Vincent, a senior writer for Christian World, is widely reported to have done the gruntwork on Going Rogue -- proving so efficient that Palin's manuscript was delivered early and allowed HarperCollins to move the publication date from spring 2010.
Vincent is not getting a byline on Going Rogue, and she's not disclosing her fee. But Andrew Crofts, who literally wrote the book on ghostwriting, has some insight on her fee, based on his own experiences ghosting fiction and non-fiction in the U.K. "It's possible that she is on a percentage deal," he says, "but I would think it more likely that someone of Palin's wealth would want to pay a fee, or get the publishers to pay one. If it was England, I would imagine she would be getting somewhere between £100,000 and £150,000" -- between $168,000 and $252,000. "In America, that figure might be higher."
The ghostwriting fee will likely come out of Palin's payday. But that's still a significant outlay of money by HarperCollins, which the publisher may never recoup. If Palin's advance is as high as $5 million, then HarperCollins wlll need to sell more than 400,000 copies of Going Rogue to cover the advance and expenses for marketing and overhead.
WIll HarperCollins Get Paid Back?
The late Sen. Edward Kennedy got a reported $8 million advance for his memoir True Compass, published by Hachette Book Group's Twelve Publishers in September. Twelve sold foreign rights to True Compass for three countries and has published a limited leather-bound edition for $1,000 a copy. That gives Twelve a better chance of earning back its advance than HarperCollins on Going Rogue, which won't have a similar limited edition and as of yet has not been signed for any editions outside the U.S. (although Barnett sold world rights to HarperCollins).
Within the industry, figures for both print runs and pre-orders are notoriously inaccurate. Publishers inflate print-run figures -- a good rule of thumb is that the actual print run is half of what's reported -- so the 1.5 million-copy press run of Going Rogue is likely closer to 750,000. The Amazon-Target-Walmart price war has made cheap copies plentiful, but their sites' "bestseller" rankings indicate high velocity, not necessarily high sales; if several hundred copies of Going Rogue were rapidly pre-ordered, the book would shoot up in the rankings.
For Going Rogue to go big, she must attract her contingent through bulk sales to the Christian right -- an audience long ignored by The New York Times Bestseller List, and by publishing in general, until Tim LaHaye and Jerry Jenkins's Left Behind series about the Rapture proved too big a cash cow to ignore. But a year after her failed candidacy as Vice President, Palin is no longer the great hope of her party. Her image is tarnished by gossip media's fascination with her and her family -- especially Levi Johnston, the teenage father of her infant grandson, who has proved indiscreet with reporters eager for sordid details.
First Serial Rights
For Going Rogue, no publication has publicly stepped up to claim first serial rights -- running the juiciest excerpts before the book comes out, which either kindles or extinguishes public anticipation for it. Such an excerpt deal may have been struck for The Oprah Winfrey Show, which features Palin in an interview the day before the book's release; the public will find out on Monday.
Either way, it may not be in HarperCollins's interest to bank so much of its fall projections on Going Rogue. The publisher had a huge bust this year in Jonathan Littell's massively hyped thousand-page novel The Kindly Ones, for which it paid $1 million that it didn't come close to earning back. (Bookscan, which accounts for as much as 70 percent of all book sales, last summer reported a disappointing 17,000 copies sold.) And until recently, the company's 2009 earnings have been brutal, in line with sales of hardcover books, which have plunged 12.3% from last year, according to the Association of American Publishers.
Of course, the stars could still align in Palin's favor. She could produce the hit she and her publisher are looking for. But the math suggests that it may be the readers who go rogue on Palin -- and on HarperCollins's plans to right the wrongs of its dismal book sales.
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Reader Comments (Page 1 of 20)
11-10-2009 @ 9:27PM
Half-Baked Tales Alaska said...
Does Sarah Palin read her own mindless drivel in the audio book version? Because the white trash hillbillies who idolize her can't read so they need someone to read Palin's words for them. The only thing I look forward to on this hyped garbage is William Shatner reading from it on Conan O'Brien's Tonight Show to only make it sound funnier than it already is.
Reply
11-10-2009 @ 10:43PM
sheilawmom said...
I can't agree with you more about Palin. Honestly, the joke has gone on too far. It's time to put this piece of work to the test. Palin has the brains of a street fighter and no basis or knowledge behind anything she says. As for her religious beliefs and child raising, I think she is worse than scum. In a nut shell, this woman has done more to hurt our country and government in less than a year then anyone I can think of. We owe this great favour to Mc Cain! Thanks, but no thanks!!!
11-11-2009 @ 11:28AM
Bill said...
Here my friends is a prime example of ignorance. This is an azzhol who has not seen a word of the book but knows all about it. Conan O'Brien??? Now there you have it...he is a Conan watcher, it's no wonder he is such a dolt. It's obvious this clot doesn't know how to read and he hopes to have someone read it to him. There are stupid people in the world but you have taken more than your share. You know nothing and are simply going along with the other lames to seem hip...you are not hip,you are a drone who hasn't ever had an original thought in your entire life. White Trash? Plus add racist to the mix. Have you ever dared to use that term to any other group? Punk ass mmmmmffffffkr!!
11-11-2009 @ 3:57PM
FoxBaseTiger said...
Agreed. This idiot is a national disgrace.
11-11-2009 @ 4:12PM
Alan Lacey said...
Dear Half-Baked......................
I guess your screen name is accurate isn't it!!
FYI....................Sarah Palin is what scares Dems/Liberal to death!!
Like it or not she has her hand on the heart beat of America!! And that is a good thing!!
Oh....By....The....Way....
I am always amazed at the "Experience" argument...........
How could a man that has never met a payroll, could not be bothered to tend to his senate seat and could only be a community organizer with ZERO...responsiblities could bamboozle so many people!
Well.......................It's pretty obvious now that he is in WAY over his head. He is an embarassing all of us with the way that he is apologizing to the world for us being the bread basket, the technology leader, the protector of the world.
The next time there is a sumani in Southeast Asia let's just not send aid. Actually let's just stop sending aid anywhere overseas............................Then there would be something to apologize for!!...........How insulting he is!!
The phrase.................
Be careful what you ask for, you just might get it!!
Comes to mind!!
Oh By The Way..............
I used to be a Democrat/Liberal...............Then I grew up.
11-11-2009 @ 8:46PM
AmericanValues said...
For those of you who complain about Palin not being politically savvy, have you ever heard Obama speak without a teleprompter. He sounds more stupid than Bush ever did. He can not speak off the cuff and if he would ever submit to an interviewer that asks tough questions, he would look like the inexperienced amateur politician that he is. Instead, he grants interviews to the liberal media stations that throw him lollipops and have the liberal agenda to maintain. Let's face it, if he were a white guy he would never have been elected with his political record and lack of experience. He's a media fabrication with no subtance. On the other hand, had Sarah Palin been black and a democrat, she would be President right now.
11-12-2009 @ 9:55AM
VCD said...
There's a lot of hate out there. And a lot of uniformed or misinformed Americans. Palin embodies the American Dream. She did not go to the "right" schools, was not brought up in wealth like most politicians. She was a PTA mom who became gov of Alaska. Quite an achievement. All you haters should calm down and listen to the message. Do a little research on what she stands for and what she accomplished. LIberty, indivdiual freedom, personal responsibility, strong defence, energy independence, government transparency. A belief that you don't need to be dependent on the government to survive. Who cares what her views on abortion are. So, becareful what you wish for. Or one day you'll wake up and your grandchildren will be asking you what it was like to live in a free counrty
11-11-2009 @ 6:01PM
Anne said...
Sarah Palin has the IQ of a river rock. When will she just go away for good. What a nut case.
11-11-2009 @ 6:35PM
Richard said...
Us white trash hillbillies/will take Palin over A Socialist, Obama any day,
I will see you at Palins inaugeration
11-11-2009 @ 7:15PM
Listens2all said...
wow, what a narrow minded human being. I'm assuming since half baked uses the same language as Mr. Obama that he is so far left. half baked is filled with hatred and self-loathing.
11-11-2009 @ 7:20PM
tyrebitre said...
"11-11-2009 @ 4:12PM
Alan Lacey said...
Oh By The Way..............
I used to be a Democrat/Liberal...............Then I grew up."
Of course you were, Alan: and of course we all believe you.
Actually, we don't: we actually believe you are a lying, disingenuous Republican or conservative trying to be cute by following the Rush Limbaugh rules of engagement.
11-11-2009 @ 8:07PM
bobby said...
y sick mf
11-19-2009 @ 12:57AM
mike said...
Have you ever written a book and had it published? Didn't think so and you have never been a govenor either I'll bet.
If nothing else Ms Palin is getting millions of dollars of free publicity from the liberal press, heck by the time the liberals are through Palin will be good or bad a household name....Silly woman.....I know she doesn't have the experience to be president, but then we can all see what experience has done for Mr Obama can't we......I guess one term is better than nothing if you want to be president nop matter how bad you are........
11-10-2009 @ 9:42PM
gregg said...
40,000 copies? This is a bigger joke than
Palin herself. I hope that publisher loses
their ass on this deal.
Reply
11-10-2009 @ 10:43PM
sheila said...
Looks like you may get your wish. I think you can buy a copy for 99 cents at the dollar store! Cheap is cheap and this is just a fraction of what Palin deserves
11-11-2009 @ 5:02PM
OU812? said...
First Mccain took a chance with her and now the publishers did...Whats that saying that was going around election time??"if ya put lipstick on a pig, its still a pig"..Oh well, VP...Out....Gov....Out.....Book ...Out....Go back to Alaska and stay there PLEASEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE
11-10-2009 @ 9:46PM
rustupid said...
Palin and Bush should get together and write a comic book.What a couple of morons.Seriously,do you repukes think these people are bright?
Reply
11-11-2009 @ 5:21AM
AC said...
The truely sad thing is, Yes, they do think Sarah is smart. What do you expect from a party that believes Cheney, Rumsfeld, Rove etc. My God they're gullible.
11-11-2009 @ 1:09PM
gtascode said...
There is a great irony here, rustupid. A book allegedly written by someone who apparently has never read one. What a spellbinder...
11-15-2009 @ 2:33PM
Harlo said...
How insulting to refer to people as "Repuks". It says more about you than about the people you attack.