Oil shortage? Sources charge U.S. influence inflates world's supply
Filed under: Energy, Economy, People
Will the world soon run out of oil or are we swimming in the stuff? That debate just got a little murkier following a report in the Guardian newspaper that says figures detailing how much oil the world has on tap have been distorted in deference to the United States. The report quotes a current employee and a former staffer at the International Energy Agency, a policy adviser to 28 mostly industrialized nation that coordinates measures during oil-supply emergencies, among other tasks.Despite forecasts that call for production to steadily rise by 2030, the world will likely instead see output decline, the U.K.-based newspaper reports, quoting an anonymous whistle-blower at the IEA. The senior official claims the U.S. has been influential in encouraging the watchdog agency to play down the rate of decline from existing oil fields while over emphasizing the chances of finding new reserves, the Guardian said.
The allegations bring into question the accuracy of the IEA's latest World Energy Outlook for oil demand and supply, published Tuesday, and raises fears that the world may run out of oil much sooner than thought.
At the controversy's core are figures that suggest the world can raise production to 105 million barrels a day from last year's 85 million barrels a day. Critics have charged that the level can't be achieved, arguing that the world has long since surpassed its peak oil-producing capacity.
That hasn't stopped those within the energy establishment to argue that oil production can be increased, with production estimates at one point reaching as high as 120 million barrels a day by 2030. The IEA has since climbed down from that estimate, the source said, having reduced them gradually to 116 million barrels a day and then to 105 million barrels a day last year.
"The 120 million figure always was nonsense but even today's number is much higher than can be justified and the IEA knows this," the source told the Guardian. The source said further that those within the organization believe 105 million barrels a day is unrealistic and that maintaining them even at levels of 90 million to 95 million barrels a day was impossible. Such pessimistic estimates have been kept under wraps for fear of spooking world financial markets.
Another anonymous source, one no longer with the IEA, is quoted by the newspaper to say that the organization viewed it as "imperative not to anger the Americans," regardless of whether there wasn't as much oil in the world as had been stated. "We have [already] entered the 'peak oil' zone. I think that the situation is really bad," the source said.
In its report Tuesday, the IEA warned that the recent worldwide economic crisis has led to a dangerous drop in energy investment, possibly thwarting recovery. It noted that investment in oil and natural-gas infrastructure in the U.S. slipped 19% last year to $90 million. That decline could constrain future supplies of electricity and oil and "undermine the sustainability of the economic recovery."
When it comes to natural gas, however, the IEA warned of a far different problem. Ongoing exploration in previously untapped shale fields will likely lead to a glut that will last until 2015.
The IEA's report comes a month ahead of next month's United Nation's Climate Change conference in Copenhagen, where world leaders will meet to discuss measures to reduce carbon emissions.
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Reader Comments (Page 1 of 15)
11-10-2009 @ 7:08PM
gd said...
at the rate new fields are being discovered, Brazil and Amazonian Peru & Chile, West Africa, the amount of Oil Sands in Canada and the fact most of Siberia & Mongolia and 3/4s of China have not been scratched by E & P and coastal SE & E Asia and Coastal Northern North America and Asia have barely been scratched I would say the person who reported this to the guardian is blowing smoke, very much like Al whore Gore. I'ld say 150 to 200 years Oil and 1000 years Nat. Gas, minimum. (and that my friends is a very conservative estimate)
Reply
11-11-2009 @ 12:33AM
Peg Leg said...
While serving in the Army for over 3 years in the muslim countrys.I found out they have to keep 10% of the oil produced. Why cant we do the same? Gasoline cost 25 cents in 1909 in all the muslim countries,
11-11-2009 @ 6:02PM
Doug said...
Thats a stretch.
Also Most of the oil in these countries have a lower BTU value and really just not good oil" Also since a lot of that is in frozen areas it hard to get out of the ground and very expesive.
11-12-2009 @ 8:24PM
raney said...
you don't know what the hell you are talking about, all of the people who add with MATH the actual number of barrels left, and subtract from that what we take out, for example 2-1=1 say that we are already facing a dwindling supply
11-12-2009 @ 9:17PM
freedom said...
You said it all friend. America is sitting on probably the worlds largest reserve of oil and N. gas. Yet are economy is in total colapse. If we tapped are resources we would be the riches country in the world and then we could afford free health care for everyone, 25 cent gas, and low or no taxes.
11-13-2009 @ 9:44PM
mthudak said...
...and you are? Exactly what are your credentials for making these claims and estimations?
11-12-2009 @ 10:14PM
Dirk said...
And perhaps you could give us a bit of your bio so we might know on what basis we should believe these numbers you throw around like fall leaves in the wind. We wait with baited breath.
11-12-2009 @ 10:24PM
Newhardt said...
And you are who?... Mr. professional on the subject?
11-12-2009 @ 10:37PM
bob said...
DITTO!! Let us go after the oil.... The way the dollar is going, pretty soon we will be exporting if they let us develop our resources, I would say 200 years +..
11-12-2009 @ 10:47PM
J.M said...
I have to agree with the amount of untapped oil supplies.
Unfortunately, too many people buy into the dinosour theory, when the only animals produced in large enough numbers, to die off and become oil, are plankton. As long as there are plankton in the sea, oil will continue to be produced. Without a crystal ball, no one can predict the end of oil. But follow the money trail down the environmental road to ruin. Al Gore, has no science background, he's just another puppet.
11-13-2009 @ 1:32AM
john said...
Your easy dispatch of Al Gore being duly noted, who does anyone believe? Just as a common consumer watching the skillful slaloming of the APA's television propaganda which conflates the amount of oil and gas in the US (as a statement of the wide availability of petroleum based fuel - their message is there's plenty [but unspoken is only if you combine the two]) tells me they don't believe you either.
11-13-2009 @ 12:47AM
CRM said...
OK, Maybe you are right. But what is you background and authority to have such an opinion in the first place. Not to be harsh, but it might help to know & to place some faith in your estimates.
11-13-2009 @ 1:54AM
Gregor said...
Your probably right gd. One more thing though... U didn't mention the BAKKAN oil fields that spans the 3 states of N.Dakota, South Dakota & Montana. There's enough oil there to surpass ALL of the mideast oil combined...and their starting to pump oil from that region now. Apparently this is ' light crude'.
Secondly, the oil field they've recently found at the foot of the Eastern Rockies is reportedly ' monsterous' in scope.
With the technology they have now, we can access all this oil with little problem and it would cost only $16.00bbl to get it. So, why hasn't the Dept of Energy, who was supposed to ween America off of imported oil, not done so? Its only been since 1973. Do U think the U.S. Gov't has been dragging their feet? My answer.. Hell Yes !
11-13-2009 @ 3:06AM
tamarajean27 said...
at last! someone is taking a stand AGAINST the "peak oil" nonsense.
For those people who wish to understand how oil reserves are being constantly RENEWED, google: "renewable oil resources" and read the many articles, especially those referencing the work of Dr. Gold, et al. The gist is that petroleum is being created constanlty in the earth's depths, i.e.: the interface of the crust and the mantle.
11-13-2009 @ 5:31AM
merletcornpone said...
What impact on our ability to buy oil does the fact that most of the countries that have oil or are going to find oil are not on the best buddies list for the US? China does not need to export oil since it is needed there so does that even count? Russia and Venezula may attach strings to sales, and doesn't shale oil require quite a high pump price to justify production?
An oil based economy seems a lot like a house of cards. The US is shipping thousands of tons of bio-mass to Europe, and the Mid East. We need to replace oil dependence with new technology that creates jobs here, the US oil cartels and fuel warlords need to be ushered out.
11-13-2009 @ 11:44AM
Amanda said...
Where are those numbers coming from? even the scientists that are funded by exxon don't give out those kinds of numbers. I was up to see the oil sands in canada this summer-- they've already extracted quite a bit (you can find satellite images online) and they're running out of space to move to... plus it takes 3x the energy to process the tar there into crude, so you're running out of oil 3x as fast as the saudi stuff. and its a good thing they have universal health care up there, because the byproduct they're dumping in the downstream water supply is causing spikes in diseases and cancers the region barely knows how to handle. the cost of oil is more than a dollar amount.
11-14-2009 @ 5:29PM
clem said...
how much oil does the earth produce? how much oil do we use?
you mean you thought oil was dead dinosaurs that jumped down mile deep holes, or are you one of those that think oil is a byproduct of the churning heating actions in the earths core? ever notice oil will move away from heat?
11-10-2009 @ 7:19PM
plewis said...
This the media at it's best...no confirmation...no source only rumor and ...to put it mildly b.s. gossip...I can't believe you would even print this junk......
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11-10-2009 @ 8:12PM
Steve Harkness said...
This is pure journalistic sensationalism. Peak oil is a greatly flawed theory. It doesn't take into consideration the new technologies that allows recovery of more oil out of wells that had been written off. Add to this the technologies that are allowing us to recover oil in areas once thought inaccessible and you will get you 120 billion barrels of oil a day by 2030.
Next fallacy, global warming. I have read from reputable sources that the world is actually cooling. I wish I could remember the name of the publication but it wasn't the National Enquirer. In the past the worlds volcanoes have pumped more CO2 into the atmosphere than anything man could come close to doing on the few centuries we have been using carbon fuel. All this political correct crapola needs to under go the scientific method and see if it still holds up. These left wing Liberal tree hugging alarmist would have us living a subsistence life style making sure we leave no carbon foot print, and for what purpose?
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11-11-2009 @ 10:25AM
Sean said...
OK, then why are the glaciers retreating? Why aren't the seas freezing to the same levels? Why are ocean temps rising? All of these are verifiable facts no one can dispute.
The only thing that is at odds, is the cause.
If we can put up wind mills and solar panels to ease our dependence on foreign oil, why not? If we can put a car on the road that runs on batteries, why not? If we can use technology to better use the resources that we have, why not?
Every dollar spent here to better our own energy needs is better than sending that dollar to a country that really doesn't like us much seems to be a better idea. Any time we can do for ourselves and not depend on others should be a better idea.
Just because Al Gore is spreading the message, doesn't mean there isn't a valid point being made.