Gold at $2,750 an ounce? Here's how it could happen
Filed under: Economy, Investing
India, the world's largest consumer of gold, is in the midst of its traditional wedding season, and that always creates extra demand for the pretty much useless yellow metal. Judging by the recent actions of that nation's central bankers, they must have been invited to every instance of nuptials in the entire country.The Reserve Bank of India purchased almost $7 billion worth of gold from the International Monetary Fund last week, helping to propel prices to $1,100 an ounce. (That's a nominal all-time high, by the way, not a real one. Adjusted for inflation, gold would need to more than double to set a true record.)
Of course, the wedding season has nothing to do with India taking 200 tons of gold of the IMF's hands. More likely, it's the ever-crashing greenback. The U.S. Dollar Index, which measures the buck against a basket of six major currencies, is perilously close to falling through its 52-week low.
There's little wonder why: As long as the Federal Reserve continues to print money with a zero interest-rate policy, it's only wise for other nations to purge rapidly depreciating dollars from their foreign exchange reserves and go gaga for gold. The yellow metal is, after all, the ultimate hedge against inflation.
As much as there's always been something slightly goofy, if not outright kooky, about gold bugs, you've got to hand it to them these days. Gold has soared about 50% in the last 52 weeks, while the dollar has dropped about 15%. The broader market, as measured by the S&P 500 ($INX) is up only 17% over the same period.
Even ever-bearish David Rosenberg is bullish on gold. The chief economist and strategist for Canada's Gluskin Sheff (and formerly of Merrill Lynch) hasn't had much good to say about equities throughout the long, spectacular rally. But he sees glittering things ahead for gold.
"Since the U.S. will not default [on its debt], not raise taxes nor cut spending, the only logical recourse will be to print vast sums of U.S. dollars to fund this surreal foray into deficit finance," Rosie told clients Monday.
Meanwhile, gold production peaked a decade ago, Rosie notes, making the gold trade all about scarcity of supply. To put that in perspective, Rosie laid out three "what if" scenarios and their implications for the yellow metal.
If India were to raise gold's share of its forex reserves from the current 6% to 20% -- or where it was during the strong U.S. dollar policy days just 15 years ago -- gold would hit $1,300 an ounce, Rosie says.
If China were merely to copy India's move and raise gold's position in its forex reserves to 6%, the yellow metal would go to $1,400.
And the third scenario?
It seems far-fetched, but it's certainly the most interesting case. Imagine that rampant inflation forced the U.S. to buy more gold to support its currency. To put our hypothetical gold needs in perspective, Rosie goes back a century to when the Fed -- whose policies are crushing the dollar today -- was first created. Back then the ratio of gold reserves to money supply (using the monetary base) stood at 40%. Today that ratio is 17%.
So here's the kicker: In order to get to that historical 40% ratio from the current 17%, the U.S. would need to purchase three years' supply of gold bullion, according to Rosie's calculations, thus pushing the price up to $2,750.



























Reader Comments (Page 1 of 4)
11-10-2009 @ 6:50AM
Tom M said...
useless yellow metal ?
How useless is paper that government can print unlimited amounts of and add lots of zeros to so they can pay for things they don't dare tax the people directly for?
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11-10-2009 @ 12:07PM
John said...
While owning gold has validity, there always is an eventual correction. I bought at $800+ in 1981 and a few years later it was worth $250. Gold speculation, like baseball cards, depends on the bigger sucker theory of someone always being willing to pay the next higher price. When the radio and TV ads are hawking gold constantly to unsophisticated masses, it is time to be careful.
11-10-2009 @ 7:45AM
TMS said...
INDIA? Come on are you freakin' serious? Then why are we always giving FINANCIAL AID TO INDIA!!! Guess we're all going to put our heads between our legs and kiss our asses GOODBYE-----gold $2K an ounce and paper money worth diddly...we're ALL DEAD!
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11-10-2009 @ 4:07PM
pinto said...
Financial aid to India--thats BS US never give any F. A to India. Yes US giving out F.A to Pakistan for years in it uses for other reason than it is intended.
11-10-2009 @ 7:49AM
Allen Ligon said...
The real money to made here is shorting "Gold" when we have almost everyone "Bullish" on gold. Remember that most commodities fall at two to three times the rate (speed over time) that these same commodities grind higher to. While we are likely still some time away from the "big" correction to the downside it will inevitably occur.
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11-10-2009 @ 9:44AM
bob said...
Yea, the price of gold triples again, then a "big" correction of a drop of 20%. The sad truth is that the big run in the price of gold has not yet begun. Wait until the Obama-inflation hits and every 401k will decide to buy some gold. You might have a collapse in worhtless paper gold, but not the metal.
11-10-2009 @ 11:30AM
Lance Manly said...
Allen and Bob's comments are really interesting because they illustrate the opposing sides of this issue very clearly. It's clear that your opinion on the future value of gold stems directly from how optimistic or pessimistic you are about the US economic recovery. Obviously Allen is much more optimistic than Bob.
I'd say I probably tend to agree more with Allen, but only because Bob is so extreme. For my two cents, which is just a guess, the same as everyone else's, I'd say go ahead and buy some gold now, but I think it'll ultimately be a relatively short term play, one to two years at most, three at most. I think this because I think the US economy will be recovering by the end of 2011, and that will act to bring gold prices back. Until that time however, yes prices will probably rise steadily. This just brings us back to the question of when you think the economy will improve.
My real problem reading the comments is just how many people actually think the US economy will never rebound. Some people are so quick to panic and squawk about the end of the world and the collapse of the US into poverty and anarchy that you’d think they were excited for it to happen!! They blame Obama and corrupt politicians and financiers for wrecking the economy and claim that they want to destroy America, but honestly what do they have to gain by doing so? Once America dies so does their money. You compare these people to parasites, so just continue the metaphor, how many parasites actually kill their hosts? Not many because doing so usually kills themselves too. As for Obama, the man has two young children, how is turning the US into a third world country going to help them?
Ultimately, most comments I read are more just a sad commentary on people's depression and anger about the times. We all need to keep in mind that when Obama launched his bail out plan last spring, he, and most experts, said that it would probably take about 18 months to tell if it was working. It has now been about 9-10 months, yet people are quick to point out how the plan has already failed. Given the global economic climate of continued patience, for instance the agreements out of the G-20 yesterday that global economic stimulus will continue, I don't think there's any harm in waiting to see what happens over the next 8 or 9 months before beginning to stock pile food, ammo, and species.
Go ahead buy some gold if you want, it will probably pay pretty well over the next few years, but just bear in mind those returns will diminish as the global economy rebounds.
Oh, and teeball, that’s a great point about the rice and beans, hahaha, very clever!
11-10-2009 @ 12:12PM
John said...
I would never buy paper gold, if you mean certificates (not futures), because there is too much fraud potential, and happening now. Better to take physical possession as a hedge, or buy gold stocks or funds invested in mines and metals companies to ride the gains.
11-10-2009 @ 12:28PM
John said...
Lance Manly--Obama has nothing to gain from the US becoming third world. But a socialist/collectivist nation is another thing. Every major socialist/communist nation has reduced 99% of the population to an equally miserable economic level while the top 1% politically favored ruling class enjoys great wealth and privilege and floats over the top. The middle class is gone and ordinary people have no chance of climbing the economic ladder to enjoy the rewards of their work and ambition. That is why the Obama daughters have no worries.
11-10-2009 @ 1:23PM
Lance Manly said...
John,
I understand your point about how socialism would benefit Obama, but do you really think that is even a reasonable concern at this point? I completely get how the recent government controlled bailouts and ongoing healthcare reform debate would make anyone but the most ardent leftist concerned about socialism. The thing of it is though, regardless of what people may think of them, the republicans will never vote for bills which are going to turn the US into a communist/socialist country. We saw this past weekend when the healthcare bill passed the house by a five vote majority, I believe the vote was 220-215, and only 1 republican crossed party lines. Even though the bill passed, Senate majority leader Read has already come out and said the bill will likely not be voted on until next year and, further, will look much different than it does now.
I only chose to discuss this particular bill because it strikes me as the most socialist thing facing the US now. Regardless of what one thinks of the bailout, I firmly believe that a large surge of government money was absolutely needed and justified to save the financial system.
If you doubt this, just consider the approach that Republican Herbert Hoover used during the beginning of the Great Depression and the devastating consequences which it caused.
Anyway, I just have a hard time getting too concerned about socialism when the Democrats have such a slim majority in both houses, and honestly, I think government intervention is necessary in times when the private sector either fails, such as recessions and depressions, or is insufficient to deal with the crisis, such as during large scale wars.
Thanks for the intelligent reply. Let me know why you think socialism is an imminent danger with the Republicans still around.
11-10-2009 @ 3:18PM
Aeon said...
Considering how valuable Gold is in the electronics industry and as a chemical catalyst I'd say this reporter needs to do a little more research.
11-10-2009 @ 8:02AM
Ron R said...
Anyone that has a extra 10,000 bucks, Im talking average Joes needs to think about buying silver it will go up slowly behind gold, a one oz. silver coin will be worth $50 to 60 bucks each in the next yrs time. If you buy them NOW at 15 bucks each your making a heck of a profit in a VERY SHORT TIME. This is only for the small guys that want to make a extra couple grand on there money, insteat of keeping it in the CHEAP BANKS savings accounts at less than 1% interest. Think about it, most of the time the big sellers you buy the silver off of will by it back at the higher price down the road, if not there will be plenty that will give you CASH for your silver coins. I purchased silver coins back when they were 4 bucks each and i bought many LBS. of them im about to make a HUGE profit this yr. on all thise coins stashed in the safty deposit boxes. HUGE PROFIT for a average working person. It works try it, you be amazed the profit you will make off a small investment. You won,t get rich but at least your money will make at least 1/2 profit for every oz. you purchased. Buy you have to buy NOW.
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11-10-2009 @ 8:03AM
PatR said...
The current price of gold bullion is still an attractive buy. DO NOT buy into the paper gold holdings schemes. There is not enough gold on the top side of the earth to fill the amount of paper gold held. Can you say PONZI SCHEME? Gold should be at $3000 per oz now and then go up even further when inflation comes, which it will.
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11-10-2009 @ 8:20AM
Ron R said...
Hers a break down for the average worker Joes, you purchase 100 ...999.9 Canadian Maple leafs one oz, coins for 16.00 each at todays prices. When it hits 40 bucks a oz, ( i think it will hit 50,60 bucks) EACH 1 oz. you purchased will be worth 40 bucks, you paid 16.00 to 18.00 each of those 40 buck resale coins..do the math 18.00 bucks - 40 bucks and that is you profit of ONE of those coins you have in your hand. If you buy 100 of those coins do the math..nice fast return on your money with NO MIDDLE man or agent to PAY out of your profits ( like stocks) you sell them you get ALL the cash over what you paid. You will make some extra cash and it beats having your money sitting in a bank account at less than 1% interest, anything UNDER 10 dollars is not reported to the goverment when you place the money in the bank. So cash your silver in at less than 10 thousand dollor checks, or what ever your payment medthod from your buyers. Small Joes unite, small investors untite and make some extra cash. NOw the time to do it IT WILL GO UP with out a dought, THE WORST that can happen )and it will not) is you sell for each oz. at 25 bucks each..you still will make some extra cash, you can not loose. np matter how you slice it up. I bought lbs of canadian silver coins back when they were at 4.00 and 6.00 a oz. Im making money sitting here typing on this blog.
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11-10-2009 @ 9:06AM
twodoc said...
This writer is a fool, with no understanding of the role gold has played for centuries. May he be paid in only that which he considers "useful".......worthless paper!!!!
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11-10-2009 @ 9:37AM
andy said...
if you consider you can get anywhere from 5 to 10 cents redeming in an empty aluminium can. .. if you have 2000 dollars in the bank at the current interest rate, it's less than a half of a percent, you may earn 2 cents at the end of the month. That can is starting to look pretty good, and the dollars in your savings accounts are looking more and more worthless. Now consider if that can was gold, it may well be worth a buy.
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11-10-2009 @ 9:48AM
THogue7464 said...
I remember when Jimmy Carter was in office and there was runaway inflation, there was a gas service station in Houston
TX that had a sign out front. "Gas .99 cents or 15 cents in silver"
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11-10-2009 @ 9:52AM
Andy said...
Not could happen will happen as I have said months and months ago buy gold!!! The dollar is going to be worthless, its inevitable.
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11-10-2009 @ 9:57AM
rick said...
Well, you know who own's the IMF...........we do! It could sell those Indians gold for the next 150 years......please, just chill....
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11-10-2009 @ 10:03AM
Tripp529 said...
I think that America should make haste and ship all our gold to China and balance our trade payments while gold is so high before it drops to less than $200.00 an ounce.
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