Just how dangerous are stimulus-driven deficits in the long run?
Filed under: Economy
Most mainstream academic and government economists -- elites, we should note, who are generally well-protected from the vagaries of the real world -- are united in the view that massive federal deficits to fund stimulus programs are not just a good thing but a necessary thing.Economist J. Brad DeLong, for example, recently raked a journalist over the coals for suggesting deficits might cause long-term harm to the economy. Accusing the journalist of "not doing the arithmetic," the economics professor at the University of California, Berkeley launched into a questionable string of assumptions to reach the dubious conclusion that massive federal borrowing will add a mere $5 per year to every taxpayers' future tax burden.
DeLong, a former U.S. Treasury official in the Clinton Administration, assumes $80 billion in new taxes collected for every $160 billion spent in stimulus -- a claim wildly unsupported by recent data, which shows tax revenues collapsing at both the state and federal level, even as the federal government spent hundreds of billions of dollars in stimulus.
Others who have done their arithmetic, such as investment advisor Mish Shedlock, have concluded that each job saved/created (the data is a bit fuzzy on the difference between the two) cost taxpayers $323,739.83. Here are the numbers: Stimulus funds paid out so far = $83.8 billion + $52.1 billion + $71.4 billion = $207.3 billion. So, you get $207,300,000,000 / 640,329 (number of jobs created) = $323,739.83 per job created. (These statistics were drawn from Recovery.gov.)
DeLong is flat-out wrong on many other counts. He touts the fact that the U.S. Treasury can borrow at low rates -- "The Treasury can now borrow through its TIPS program for 20 years at an interest rate of 2 percent plus inflation" -- blithely assuming inflation will stay missing in action for the next two decades.
What happens if inflation rises to historically average rates such as 8 percent? Then the Treasury will be paying 10 percent interest -- far from DeLong's implicit assumption that inflation will stay near-zero for an entire generation.
DeLong appears not to have done his math on just how much the federal deficit costs us now, never mind if inflation does rise at some point in the future. According to the federal government's own website for tracking interest payments, Treasury Direct, the interest this year will certainly exceed $400 billion -- a staggering figure which DeLong purposefully trivializes with his absurd contention that hundreds of billions in federal borrowing to fund stimulus will only result in $5 more a year in additional taxes for each U.S. citizen.
About half the government-owned debt is owed to the Social Security Trust Fund -- what is called intergovernmental debt. But the interest on the so-called "external debt" owed to other owners of federal bonds is estimated to be $260 billion in fiscal 2009 -- a sum larger than the combined budgets of the entire alphabet soup of federal agencies below Defense, Social Security and Medicare/Medicaid: Education, Veterans Administration, Housing and Urban Development, Energy, Interior, Justice, Agriculture, Interior and so on.
Those claiming "deficits don't matter" should have to answer this question: what else could be done with that $260 billion paid in interest every year? That's over $1 trillion every four years.
DeLong is also being less-than-honest about the makeup of federal debt. Relatively modest sums of those trillions of dollars are in the long-term TIPs he heralds; much is short-term debt which must be rolled over every few years. Indeed, foreign buyers of U.S. T-bills have recently shown a preference for short-term bonds -- they would rather not take a chance that inflation will remain near-zero for decades to come.
If interest rates rise -- which they must if buyers decide not to buy T-bills paying absurdly low rates of return -- then the interest paid on Federal debt could jump within a relatively short period of time. DeLong and other stimulus proponents conveniently ignore the risks or probabilities of this occurring.
Even worse (if that's possible), backers of trillion-dollar stimulus spending plans ignore the de facto nationalization of Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae (FNM), which hold $5 trillion or roughly half of all the mortgages in the nation. The losses incurred by these two mortgage giants could run into the hundreds of billions -- money which will come out of future borrowing or the taxpayers' hides.
Total federal debt exceeds $10 trillion, roughly comparable to the $11 trillion in total household debt (mortgages and consumer debt). Federal debt actually rose by over $1 trillion in 2008 alone. With tax revenues plummeting far below rosy estimates and stimulus spending adding to ever-larger federal spending on defense and Medicare, $1 trillion might be added to the federal debt every year for years to come.
Perhaps the most pernicious aspect of all this governmental borrow-and-spend, which DeLong and others applaud as necessary and cost-effective, is that it draws no distinction between necessary commercial lending and lending which goes to speculative bubble-blowing.
In a classic financial panic, risks that were downplayed or ignored raise their ugly heads, and lenders limit credit to those with the lowest-risk profiles who are willing to pay substantial rates of interest for the use of the money. In severe crises, then lending simply dries up and commercial enterprise grinds to a halt. This was the precipice that the Federal Reserve and Treasury feared we were approaching in late 2008.
Global and domestic business need short-term credit to operate. This has been the case since the 1500s, when merchants borrowed money to fund long and risky voyages to the Indies and Asia and bought insurance against the loss of the ships. But this commercial lending is entirely different from the mortgage market or long-term lending, and it is also different from the sort of speculative lending which funds gambles in the stock market and highly leveraged bets in other markets.
But the Fed and Treasury have not made much distinction between fostering easy credit and lending for commercial purposes and pure speculation, and apparently neither do the economists who believe that the answer to all our economic problems is more federal borrowing and spending, more nationalization of risk and bad debt, and more easy credit for whatever purposes the borrower might pursue -- including leveraged risky bets with what is essentially taxpayers' money.
Indeed, those who see the $8,000 tax credit for new home buyers as more beneficial stimulus seem blind to the fact that the program has engendered massive fraud and abuse and may well be propping up a housing market which by all accounts was an epic bubble.
Should future taxpayers be paying essentially forever to prop up housing prices now -- a campaign which may well fail in any event?
Should our children be paying hundreds of billions of dollars in interest to create jobs at $223,000 a pop now (let's be generous and knock $100,000 off the $323,000 per job as currently calculated) via stimulus programs, which will require adding another $1 trillion to the national debt every year if taxes don't fill the gap?
Sorry, Mr. DeLong -- those additional costs won't add a mere fiver to each taxpayers' future burdens. Perhaps you should sharpen your pencil and deal with reality rather than fantasy.
Charles Hugh Smith writes the Of Two Minds blog and is the author of numerous books, most recently Survival+: Structuring Prosperity for Yourself and the Nation.



























Reader Comments (Page 1 of 6)
11-07-2009 @ 9:46AM
gvpal52aol.com said...
When you play games with fake money and the game is over the money is worthless. Same same Timmy!
Reply
11-07-2009 @ 9:42PM
Kyle said...
UC Berkley. I love it. People like that give me time to plan my future. It is almost unfair. You know a huge group of people follow DeLong, so you play right into their stupidity.
You get out of debt, and into commodities, watch the world crumble, and buy up everything at the bottom. And we're not even close to the bottom.
11-07-2009 @ 9:48AM
MADDAT52 said...
When you play games with fake money and the game is over the money is worthless. Same game Timmy
Reply
11-07-2009 @ 10:31AM
Uncledickierc said...
Based on an E-mail I recieved, I did some of my own calculations to come up with some interesting stats. Before
taking the time to post it, I"m using this post to see if it works.
Reply
11-07-2009 @ 10:44AM
A concerned citizen said...
Mr. Smith,
Perhaps if people like yourself stop spreading negative information this economy will turn around. To place further burden and panic on the consumer is unacceptable. It is not you nor the economists who are going to turn the economy it is people like me and others that will drive the US out of the economic mess we are in. I realize your job is to create controversy so people read your blog; however, you need to responsible and understand the repercussion (fear) articles such as yours have on the regular Joe reading your blog.
Reply
11-07-2009 @ 9:21PM
James said...
Mr. Smith, you nailed it. If the media didn't slaughter us everyday with bad economic news, consumer spending would be way up.
70% of our economic problems is the lack of consumer spending from people who are financially secure.
But, good news doesn't sell.
10% unemployment? Doesn't that mean 90% are in the workforce? That's a lot of jobs.
11-08-2009 @ 11:00AM
pete said...
Mr. Smith, you are 100% correct. Eight years of media rage at all thing Bush took their toll on the American economy. The media laid every thing from the eruption of Krakatoa to the death of planet Earth from global warming on Bush's back. Now the whole world is paying for it. The only way out is PUBLIC spending. Government can't do a dam thing for us by taking more of OUR money to give away into new programs to "help" us. They whine that out prisons are over filled to bursting, then tell us if we fail to purchase THEIR insurance program, millions more of us will be imprisoned. How about our alleged leaders use their heads for something more than a hat rack for once. Every time they open their mouths they insult all of us. Time to remove ALL of them from office. We as a nation will be better off with a Congress of political novices than we are with the "professional" politicians we have now. They are only interested in promoting themselves, and the hell with the people.
11-08-2009 @ 5:56PM
jason said...
Apparently group think turns you on. For those of us who value living
in a free society where there are no sacred cows criticism is
welcome.........Mr. Smith does bring up some valid points whether you
want him to or not.
11-08-2009 @ 11:57PM
Mel said...
That's like saying "hey New Orleans! What do you see to the north?" when there's a hurricane coming from the south. Go ahead and bury your head in the sand. You'll be begging from people that are smart enough to look ahead.
11-07-2009 @ 11:00AM
Uncledickierc said...
Looks like the test works...so here goes. The way "one billion dollars" is being tossed around, I did some math on my pocket calculator to try to put one billion into perspective. The idea came from an e-mail I recieved that apparently had its' source in some advertising agency, but no names given. One billion in terms of seconds would be about 33 years, or would take us back to 1976. In terms of minutes one billion would be about 2000 years or about the time of John the Baptist aka John of Potmus, the presumed author of the Book of Revelation in the New Testament. In terms of hours, one billion would take us back to the Lower Paleolithic Stone age Period (about 100 thousand years ago). And in terms of days, one billion would take us back
2.8 million years.
On the expenditure scale, Federal expenditures for 2008 was about 3 Trillion Dollars...which is 3000 billion for the
year, or about 8.25 billion dollars a day, which is roughly
344 million dollars an hour. Given the rate of expenditure of the new single party Government, the only direction the above figures can go is UP.
Reply
11-07-2009 @ 9:26PM
James said...
Uncle, you have way too much time on your hands.
11-08-2009 @ 9:10AM
dude said...
don't blame this on the current government. it was the past regime who grabbed all the silver they could stuff in their pockets with their greedy hands as the walked out the door. everyone seems to forget that this president walked in with the worst problems facing him (and the country) in several generations. so put the blame where it belongs and be a part of the solution. not the damn problem!
11-07-2009 @ 11:06AM
Uncledickierc said...
With reference to my comment 3 above, I did in fact post another comment, but it has been censored. Sorry folks.
Reply
11-07-2009 @ 11:10AM
jerryo5368 said...
The marketplace has found too many ways to transfer public money to private interests through third party operations. There can be only one answer - bankruptcy!
AS the 'NewsHour' STATED:"How many times have countries defaulted thru out history?"
Reply
11-07-2009 @ 11:15AM
Steve said...
DeLong is from Burkeley, we know where he stands. The jobs created number is so bogus, the White House should be prosecuted for cooken the books. The Stimulas package was nothing but Democratic pork. The government can't create real jobs, only the private sector can.
Reply
11-07-2009 @ 11:23AM
Dan said...
What you have is a lot of people weighing in on the current plan we are on to try to recover from the worst recession we have had in nearly 80 years. They have a lot of ideas and express themselves on the why and hows this is not going to work. They seem to have an abundant source of theories of why the Stimulus is not going to work. From the beginning though most of these so called experts did agree it could be a full 18 months and maybe longer beofre we will know how well the Stimulus has worked or how well it did not work. The stimulus got passed in early February. So it's been 9 months and you have all these same experts already saying this is too costly. This not working. What happened to it could be 18 months or longer beofre we get the actual results? Where did that go? I am not kidding. Some of these so called expert economists were saying it was going to take atleast that long to know. Now some of these same economists are already talking about how it is not going to work. Okay were they lying before or right now? Hmmm.
Reply
11-08-2009 @ 1:19PM
bipartisanwatch said...
All the numbers that these people are using come from the white house whom have also said that the best days of the stimulus are over. Why do you think that there is talk of a new stimulus bill in Washington. Mr. Smiths assessment of the stimulus is correct and the level of debt we are incurring is unsustainable. We are already way over our heads in this mess and Washington is only making it worse. Do you find it strange that a lot of that stimulus money went into places that are heavily invested in by congress like Goldman Sachs, Citibank, Bank of America just to name a few. I think that its also strange that those intities biggest competitors are now gone due to the recession. It all starts with the Federal Reserve and it can all end with the Federal Reserve. Ben Bernanke, Henery Paulson, Timothy Geithner who is really running this country? You or them
11-07-2009 @ 11:27AM
G said...
Dam fools in Washington! You can't get ahead by borrowing more to get out of debt. Simple.
Reply
11-07-2009 @ 11:27AM
woodpilot said...
Obama has done more damage to this county in 9 months than all other president combined in the past 250 years
Reply
11-07-2009 @ 2:36PM
Barb said...
You are soooo right. And the sooner we get him out of office, the sooner we will get our lives back.