Nomura's Joseph Mezrich sees market rally continuing as profits recover
Filed under: Retirement, Company News, Columns, Economy, People, Investing, Earnings
Bears who warn the U.S. stock market has gone too far too fast -- the broad Standard & Poor's 500 index is up 18 percent year to date -- may not get much vindication anytime soon. Investors should see stocks continue to rally as long as corporate profits keep recovering, says market expert Joseph Mezrich (pictured), Nomura Securities International's head of quantitative research.And the signs look good. The estimated earnings growth rate for the Standard & Poor's 500 during the fourth quarter is 216 percent, according to Thomson Reuters. Even stripping out the volatile financial sector, the other eight out of nine sectors are expected to show a blended growth rate of 7 percent. But that's still double the 3.5 percent economic growth of the U.S. economy in the third quarter. And Mezrich says it's the fact that profit growth is outpacing the U.S. economy that stocks have rallied ahead of an economic recovery.
"Earnings are growing far, far faster than the economy," says Mezrich, speaking to reporters at the Nomura offices in New York on Thursday. "You saw it in 2002, you saw it in 1991 and you're probably seeing that now." Earnings growth typically follows an economic recession. And the current situation sure supports that recent trend.
Seeing stocks recover losses is what's being being experience by major investors, who are betting that the economic recovery taking shape in the U.S. will be much stronger than is widely believed, DailyFinance's Vishesh Kumar wrote Thursday. The growing bullishness among major investors follows a wave of optimistic economic data that suggests prior views of a muted recovery might be far too gloomy.
"Profits will grow faster than the economy," says Mezrich, who joined Nomura in 2006 and previously worked at UBS and Morgan Stanley. "The real question on how to gauge the performance of stocks is how profits will perform." Mezrich typically looks at systematic factors such as momentum, value and risk to explain market movements.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 53 percent, while the the S&P 500 is up 58 percent through the close of trading Thursday since the market hit its lows in March. "The March 9 rally was about risk coming out of the market," Mezrich says. "This has been extremely painful for many people. The market is coming back and likely will continue coming back."
Investors should be enthused if they look back on the last recession and recovery in 2002 and 2003, he says. "It took about a year for that to turn around, but there was extraordinary profit growth."
Profits were suppressed during the economic downturn, which is similar to what has gone on in the U.S. economy in the past 18 months. "This is a positive backdrop for when profits matter," Mezrich says. "We're maybe not yet there yet, because it's still all about risk."
Anthony Massucci is a senior writer and columnist for DailyFinance. You can follow him on Twitter at hianthony.



























Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
11-07-2009 @ 8:20PM
RJ said...
Wrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr......................Wrong! The unemployment rate is over 10%. Main street has no money. The U.S. gdp is/was 60-65% U.S. consumer based. The U.S. consumer has no extra income to buy unessentials. If oil/gas keeps artificially rising the economy will slow down to a greater double dip recession which could lead to a depression if the U.S government keeps printing currency.
We are on the edge. Obama must confront the oil/gas companies and speculators to control the artificially inflated prices. Plus he must talk to his buddy , Jamie Dimon, at JP Morgan Chase and other credit card companies and banks and start demanding them to stop abusing the U.S. taxpayer and consumer. Savings/checking accounts getting below 0.5% and these scum charging 29% or more. I rather borrow money from Vito from the local money store.....
Reply
11-08-2009 @ 8:29PM
Shelly said...
People have been predicting a huge crash for months and months. Dr. Doom said stocks would be lower then last March by this summer. Summers over and he is way wrong.
He keeps trying to scare everyone , but noone will listen to him anymore. At some point stock will probably crash, but not to the level of last March like he said. All the so called expects seem to know nothing about the stock market at all.
I think stocks will keep going up through 2012. As long as we have a slow steady recovery people will invest in the stock market. I predict that stocks will go up and down all the time. And I also think if you buy low and sell high you will make money in stocks. I should be a stock broker maybe. :)
Reply