Top Picks: Seven big-name stocks to avoid
Filed under: Technology, Investing, Media, Google , Motorola, Research In Motion, Sears Holdings Corp., Sony, Berkshire Hathaway, Apple, Wal-Mart Stores, Target Corp., Palm
Sometimes bad stocks happen to good companies.That's not a moral judgment; it's merely a reminder that shares and the corporations that issue them are not the same thing. After all, the best company in the world isn't worth buying into if its stock is too expensive -- and likely to fall. The reverse also holds true: Just because a company's business is in the dumps doesn't mean its shares aren't oversold -- and poised for a pop.
That's why a stock that fetches $500 can be said to be "cheap," while a $5 stock can be said to be "expensive." It's not the face-value of equities that investors need to focus on -- it's the valuation and, of course, the fundamentals.
Take the market's massive rally off the March low, which has a lot of big-name shares looking pretty expensive relative to their projected earnings. Now we don't much advocate shorting securities (it's too risky), but after screening our way through scads of big-name stocks, we found seven that look way too pricey to start a new position -- or to add to a new one. If you already have these stocks in your portfolio, we'd say they are "holds," at best. And if you don't own them, don't bother getting in now.
Here, then, are seven big-name stocks to avoid.
Capital One
If you picked up Capital One (COF) at the March low you're sitting on gain of more than 360 percent right now. Unfortunately, it seems the easy money has been more than made. Despite burning up the equity markets over the last seven months, Capital One is still off about four percent on the year, lagging the S&P 500 ($INX) by about six percentage points. Of more concern is how pricey shares look. On a forward earnings basis the stock is nearly three times more expensive than the broader market, according to Thomson Reuters, and greater than four times more expensive relative to its own five-year average. That's not a compelling relative valuation, especially for a credit-card and banking company with so much exposure to consumer de-leveraging and interest-rate risk.
Citigroup
Too big to fail and too big to manage, Citigroup (C), once a pioneer of the supermarket approach to selling financial products and services, now looks more like a financial flea market. Echoing Capital One, shares have nearly quintupled since the March low, making them look far too expensive to bother with now. The stock is greater than three times more expensive than the broader market on a forward earnings basis. Meanwhile, return on equity (ROE) -- a measure of quality -- is negative. Take them together and you have what appears to be a very expensive, low-quality stock. Throw in the fact that analysts' average long-term "growth" rate is negative, and it's hard to like shares even at the current price of four bucks a pop.
Marriott
The hotel giant may have done a decent job slashing costs and strengthening its balance sheet through the recession -- moves that could pay off handsomely once the economy improves -- but therein lies the rub with Marriott (MAR). A global economic downturn is simply hell on the lodging industry, as business people and consumers alike cut back on travel. That's been decimating the industry's key metric of revenue per
Motorola
For too long too much of Motorola's (MOT) fortunes have been tied to its handset business. That was great when the Razr was all the rage, propelling sales and market share to enviable levels. Now the company is looking to reverse its long post-Razr slide with hot new designs based on Google's (GOOG) Android operating system. Maybe that will work out for them, but this company has too much history as a two-trick pony for our taste. Except for the StarTac and Razr crazes, the company's market share tends to stay stubbornly, lamely the same. Throw in the fact that the stock trades at premiums of more than 100 percent to the market and nearly 45 percent to its own five-year average, and this is one call investors best not take.
Palm
In many ways Palm (PALM) looks a little too much like Motorola to like its fundamentals. The once dominant personal digital assistant and smartphone maker lost is mojo to Research in Motion's (RIMM) BlackBerry line and Apple's (AAPL) incomparable iPhone long ago. Palm, like Motorola, has it's own new well-received operating system; and shares, just like Moto's, look too pricey at these levels, as well. They're going for a 50 percent premium to the broader market, meaning investors are betting big on a Palm comeback, which may -- or may not -- materialize.
Sears Holdings
When billionaire hedge-fund macher Eddie Lampert's K-Mart bought Sears to create Sears Holdings (SHLD) five years ago, no one really believed that Eddie wanted to run a giant retail chain, despite his protestations. Trying to compete with Wal-Mart (WMT), Target (TGT) and Kohl's (KSS), to name just three, didn't make much sense. Rather, the deal had to be for the commercial real estate assets (ugly timing, there) and/or to use the entity in the same way Warren Buffett turned an old textile company into Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A). Whatever Crazy Eddie's strategy, shares are too expensive to buy into it now. Sears's stock is three times more expensive than the market and nearly 30 percent greater than its own five-year average.
Sony
Perhaps Sony (SNE) never got the memo that conglomerates are soooo forty years ago. That would help explain this unholy combination of consumer electronics, movies, TV, music, insurance, banking and leasing businesses. The PlayStation 3? Awesome. Bravia HDTVs? Lovely. The remake of the "The Karate Kid?" Bring it on. But the stock? We wouldn't touch it with someone else's ten-foot pole. Shares currently trade at a 45 premium to the market while sporting negative ROE. That makes Sony look like an expensive, low-quality stock (with an incomprehensible business model, to boot).



























Reader Comments (Page 1 of 2)
10-30-2009 @ 9:45AM
m. deRosset said...
First time viewer of DailyFinance. Very informative.
Reply
11-03-2009 @ 4:20AM
James said...
Don't get too attached to it. If this guy had a clue what he was talking about he wouldn't have to write these uneducated articles about the stock market.
10-30-2009 @ 12:17PM
Brian said...
By the way...RevPAR is Revenue Per Available (not average) Room
Reply
10-30-2009 @ 12:33PM
fernando said...
Avoid:
Samsung
GE
Buy: 5 min Cap
Put $10,000 into Panasonic
Will make out great!
Reply
11-02-2009 @ 6:41PM
olan928 said...
You are so wrong about GE. The day GE goes down, kiss the US economy and several other countries away. They are one of the best run companies in the world. I should know I just retired after 42 years with them.
10-30-2009 @ 12:52PM
Jake said...
Disagree CITI is a bargin right now with superiior management and backing. Sorry I am buying atthese levels.
Reply
10-30-2009 @ 1:38PM
ij70 said...
I think Citi might fold. It is one of the few TARP recipients who had not paid their TARP back, that is very discouraging.
11-01-2009 @ 5:16PM
brian05487 said...
Wow good luck with that call, sold my bonds (citi) two weeks ago, after seeing the talk of it completely failing , I am very happy I did so. Why don't you send Bush a letter to thank him for propping it up so you could wait with Obama and find nothing will help.
10-30-2009 @ 1:15PM
Now on piano said...
to m. DeRosset
Looking to AOL for financial advice is like Reagan (Pres.) looking to Dixon (astrologer) for policy advice.
Reply
10-30-2009 @ 1:53PM
LenC said...
If the picture next to the article is the writer..he MAY be right, but I'll be damned if I will take seriously some asshole dressed up like an asshole!
Reply
10-31-2009 @ 3:46AM
John said...
LOL LenC
Reply
10-31-2009 @ 3:54AM
Rob said...
LOL at AOL finance and investing advice. Here's a better tip on investing. If some dude dressed like the devil has to explain to you the most basic stock valuation...Don't buy stock in anything other than a lot of books.
Also, C is not overbought, and has great management, and plenty of new restructured bonds. Its a long term but 4$ is cheap.
Reply
10-31-2009 @ 5:48PM
MaxUout said...
Buy stock in liquor, In this recession people are still finding a way to get tipsy
Reply
10-31-2009 @ 5:27PM
bob said...
I think we are getting close to the second leg downward. How's this. Obama is defeated on healthcare, a big emotional surge up, followed by the commercial property crash, followed by the Afghanistan withdrawal and the resulting inflation (just like after Vietnam with Carter).
Reply
10-31-2009 @ 10:40PM
kluji said...
\What fricken expert wrote this crap. You trell the people to saty away from these stocks NOW? Bahahahahahahahah. Gee, what a fricken genius.
Reply
10-31-2009 @ 11:54PM
marcuss said...
buy american the job you might save could be yours.
Reply
11-01-2009 @ 1:09AM
davidrep1 said...
What a waste of time. I can't believe someone actually got paid to write this garbage.
Reply
11-01-2009 @ 7:02AM
steve said...
full of garbage.
Reply
11-01-2009 @ 5:44AM
John said...
I wonder if Marriott misses the smokers that make up 25% of the population that they banned a year or so ago. Bet they miss them big time.
Reply
11-01-2009 @ 7:46AM
dave said...
Citi is one of 2 banks who charges interest on credit card billing cycles a month after the bill is paid off (Double cycle billing).
That is not a sign of a healthy company or one who wants to maintain alot of credit card subscribers.
Reply