Jobless claims inch lower, but continuing claims plunge
Filed under: Economy
Initial jobless claims unexpectedly dipped only 1,000 to 530,000 for the week ending October 24, but continuing claims plunged 148,000 to 5.797 million, the U.S. Labor Department announced Thursday. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News had expected initial jobless claims to fall to 525,000 this week. Meanwhile, the four-week moving average for initial jobless claims decreased 6,000 to 526,250.
A year ago, initial jobless claims totaled 485,000 and continuing claims totaled 3.773 million.
Economists view the four-week jobless claims average as a better indicator of unemployment conditions, as it smooths-out anomalies for strikes, holidays, or other idiosyncratic events.
Economists also monitor the continuing claims stat because it provides a snapshot of how long it's going to take the typical person to find comparable employment once he/she has sustained a job loss. In general, continuing claims above three million reflect a slack labor market, and point to extended six- to nine-month (or longer) job searches.
Further, the Economic Policy Institute, a liberal think tank based in Washington, D.C., says the nation's job drought is so severe that Congress should consider a two-year job creation tax credit to increase jobs across the economy, regardless of company size or current profitability. The EPI estimates the credit would create 2.8 million jobs in 2010 and 2.3 million in 2011, with half the program's $28 billion cost recouped in lower spending on unemployment insurance, Medicaid spending, and other social safety net programs.
The largest increases in initial claims for the week ending October 17, the latest week for which data is available, were in California, 5,774; Puerto Rico, 685; Minnesota, 614; Nevada, 366; and Nebraska, 239. The largest decreases were in Wisconsin, 5,681; New York, 4,711; Pennsylvania, 4,033; Illinois, 3,670, and Oregon, 2,706.
Also, the highest insured unemployment rates for the week ending October 10, the latest week for which data is available, were in: Puerto Rico, 6.3 percent; Nevada, 5.3 percent; Oregon, 5.3 percent; Pennsylvania, 5.0 percent; Wisconsin, 4.8 percent; Arkansas, 4.6 percent; California, 4.6 percent; Michigan, 4.6 percent; North Carolina, 4.5 percent; and South Carolina, 4.5 percent.
Economic Analysis: This week's employment data was a mixed bag: one tepid stat, two encouraging stats. Even so, investors should focus on downward treks of the four-week moving average and continuing claims. Those declines, combined with signs of stabilization in housing and manufacturing, and the U.S. Commerce Department's report that the U.S. economy grew 3.5 percent in Q3 – its first increase in a year – point to declining lay-offs and job gains in the quarters ahead. Still, economists would like to see initial jobless claims fall by 50 percent or to about 275,000 in 12 months to have confidence that the young economic expansion is capable of creating jobs at a sufficient rate.
Economists also monitor the continuing claims stat because it provides a snapshot of how long it's going to take the typical person to find comparable employment once he/she has sustained a job loss. In general, continuing claims above three million reflect a slack labor market, and point to extended six- to nine-month (or longer) job searches.
Further, the Economic Policy Institute, a liberal think tank based in Washington, D.C., says the nation's job drought is so severe that Congress should consider a two-year job creation tax credit to increase jobs across the economy, regardless of company size or current profitability. The EPI estimates the credit would create 2.8 million jobs in 2010 and 2.3 million in 2011, with half the program's $28 billion cost recouped in lower spending on unemployment insurance, Medicaid spending, and other social safety net programs.
The largest increases in initial claims for the week ending October 17, the latest week for which data is available, were in California, 5,774; Puerto Rico, 685; Minnesota, 614; Nevada, 366; and Nebraska, 239. The largest decreases were in Wisconsin, 5,681; New York, 4,711; Pennsylvania, 4,033; Illinois, 3,670, and Oregon, 2,706.
Also, the highest insured unemployment rates for the week ending October 10, the latest week for which data is available, were in: Puerto Rico, 6.3 percent; Nevada, 5.3 percent; Oregon, 5.3 percent; Pennsylvania, 5.0 percent; Wisconsin, 4.8 percent; Arkansas, 4.6 percent; California, 4.6 percent; Michigan, 4.6 percent; North Carolina, 4.5 percent; and South Carolina, 4.5 percent.
Economic Analysis: This week's employment data was a mixed bag: one tepid stat, two encouraging stats. Even so, investors should focus on downward treks of the four-week moving average and continuing claims. Those declines, combined with signs of stabilization in housing and manufacturing, and the U.S. Commerce Department's report that the U.S. economy grew 3.5 percent in Q3 – its first increase in a year – point to declining lay-offs and job gains in the quarters ahead. Still, economists would like to see initial jobless claims fall by 50 percent or to about 275,000 in 12 months to have confidence that the young economic expansion is capable of creating jobs at a sufficient rate.
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Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
10-29-2009 @ 4:54PM
Cybercorrespondent said...
Political points to ponder
What would happen if any other political party pushed for a cap and trade bill that could create green jobs of which 9 out of 10 created would be unsustainable, require government subsidizing and cost the nations economy millions of real jobs? And this is not to mention the increase in manufacturing costs that would be passed on to us in time of depression.
No matter if you are a Democrat, Republican, Libertarian or an Independent, what do you think is going to happen when the government revenues are down and spending is quadrupled? As one senator from Florida was categorized as, “One must be a fry short of a happy meal” to believe that wiping out the U.S. dollar and reducing the purchasing power of our salaries and retirement savings is a good thing.
How do you think the media or yourself would react if the republicans were the majority party and were negotiating behind closed doors on a republican senator’s proposal to overhaul one of our economy's largest industries, especially when it hasn't been written yet? On an almost straight party-line vote, Democrats in the Senate Finance Committee squashed an amendment by Senator Jim Bunning that would have required the Obama, Nancy Pelosi, Harry Reed and the Baucus healthcare or “rob our children and their children bill” to be posted on the Internet for all Americans to read for 72 hours prior to the Committee voting on it.
There are Republicans who should be voted out of office as well. They are the ones who didn’t listen to the American people and under the veil of "negotiations," kept the “rob our children and their children” bill scheme to socialize the nation's health care system alive. And those are not the only ones. Every politician who allowed the Federal Reserve to loan two trillion dollars without knowing to whom, for what or the disclosure of terms should be investigated, made accountable for their irresponsibility and thrown out of office as well. Sleeping on the job is no excuse.
The Federal Reserve has no real oversight and it’s time for these politicians to get the message loud and clear. We need to learn from our past mistakes and before voting, find out the candidate’s passed association’s, voting record, speeches made and most importantly, don’t let the progressives in the media or celebrities who receive bribes from the likes of George Soros brain wash you. The buss is speeding to go over a cliff and we need to get hold of the staring wheel and the brakes.
Cybercorrespondent
http://cybercorrespondent.blogspot.com
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