Great Depression, Great Recession: What 1929 can teach us about 2009
Filed under: Economy, Investing
How do you commemorate the worst stock market crash in history? With the news that another devastating economic implosion may be nearing its end. That's where America finds itself on the 80th anniversary of the Great Depression -- reacting to the first positive GDP numbers in a year, slowly pulling itself out of the Great Recession, and looking for ways to make sure the country doesn't wind up mired in a decade of dismal economic conditions similar to the one that began 80 years ago on Oct. 29, 1929.Analysts and market watchers have been comparing the two meltdowns all year, and investors can take note of the similarities in their causes as they consider how to navigate their portfolios through the aftermath (we hope) of the most recent one.
The 1929 crash is infamous for the 12 percent drop the markets took on Oct. 29 and the 89 percent slide the Dow Jones Industrial Average took over the three years that followed (falling from 381 to 41). The 2008-2009 crash was swift, but not as steep a drop – the Dow declined about 45 percent over seven months, before beginning an ascent in March that took it back above 10,000 in recent weeks.
David Adler, an expert on behavioral finance and author of Snap Judgment, points out that the key similarity between the two crashes is that in both cases investors were overleveraged. In 1929, investors were overleveraged primarily through the use of margin accounts, which weren't regulated then. In the 2008-2009 crash, investors were overleveraged through the use of loans and risky mortgages.
"Whereas the 1929 crash involved overleveraged stock speculators, the more recent crash involved overleveraged homeowners and investment banks," said Adler, adding "And right now the U.S. government is overleveraged and heavily in debt."
To safeguard investors and the markets after the 1929 crash, tighter banking regulations were enacted. Margin accounts were regulated to prevent investors from borrowing their way to ruin. The FDIC was established to insure bank deposits and restore confidence in the markets. The SEC was created to fight corruption in the stock markets. And the precursor to Fannie Mae was created to stop the need for short-term lending that had also played a role in causing people to be overleveraged during the 1929 crash.
Diane Swonk, chief economist of Mesirow Financial, doesn't expect investors will see the federal government acting to protect their interests with the same level of regulatory reform this time around.
"The policy response [to stop the market slide] was pretty swift and dramatic, but the change in regulation in terms of the structure of our financial services industry has yet to really take its full form," she said. "Although we're seeing things come out piecemeal right now, the type of seismic shift you saw coming out of the Great Depression, we have yet to see."
So the markets lose 45 percent in seven months and regulators don't see a need to change anything? In Swonk's opinion, because fiscal policy was handled better during the current crash and markets rebounded quickly, regulators are probably more inclined to add a few new rules or reinforce rules already in place, rather than do a major restructuring. The Great Depression was different in that it lasted about ten years: "Partly because it went on for so long, it forced us to make much more dramatic changes in the way financial markets were structured," Swonk said.
So with few major regulatory changes coming and a rocky recovery on the horizon, where is the investor left? Speculation is still a problem, pushing up the price of everything from stocks to gold to oil. And both Inflation and deflation lurk as dangers.
"With inflation from the government debt and the decline of the dollar a major threat, investments that protect against inflation such as TIPS [Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities] are a good bet for part of your portfolio," advised Adler. "This will allow you to take more risks with the remainder of your portfolio, with diversification among asset classes -- foreign equities; U.S. equities; commodities; global bond funds -- still critical to investment success."
Swonk encourages investors to stay invested and stay the course. "I am long in equities, but I'm not buying as much right now because the market is correcting at the moment," she cautioned. "But in a year from now, do I think the market is going to be higher than it is right now? Absolutely."
And she had a prediction: Even with all the failures and all the scrutiny they've endured this year, bank on the banks. "Banking is the place to make a lot of money over the next couple of years -- the spreads are there, they've got the capital -- the ones that want to make it are going to make it really big."
How ironic that the industry many blame for pushing the country into the Great Recession could be the one that may benefit most as we're coming out of it. Happy Anniversary, everyone.



























Reader Comments (Page 1 of 3)
10-29-2009 @ 1:01PM
Realist said...
If you remember - the economy didn't start to dramatically tank until about a year after oil drastically increased in price. Don't tell me that ground zero for our economic mess was other than oil cost/speculation. This is the largest difference between the Depression of the 1920s and now. Until speculation on energy is controlled, we will continue to experience a shakey and vulnerable economy.
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10-29-2009 @ 3:32PM
brian said...
You hit the nail right on the head. when the fundamentals of supply and demand are not keeping prices in line, then regulations on the bastards that call themselves 'speculator' need to be in place. they are not speculator's, they are manipulator's, and they are responsible for all of the world economy crashing. Case in point: There is so much crude oil that is is being stored on the barges that deliver it. the barges are parked.
10-29-2009 @ 3:45PM
All Star Caps said...
Never Forget...Subprime Ponzi is where it all started - Just ask Chris Dodd about his CountryWide buddies....of course you know a "Buddy" is a "bed" partner. Watch this short!
http://www.break.com/usercontent/2009/4/SubPrime-Slime-705089.html
10-29-2009 @ 4:32PM
charles said...
I agree 100%. So, what is the government doing regarding oil speculation? What is the government doing to promote alternative energy? I think the answer is very obvious. Not very much!! The oil speculators are at it again. Prices for fuel are going up as demand goes down! We all complain while Obama "dithers"!! Gas will be back at $4 before the winter is over and for the most part this is caused by speculation!! Does anyone remember the oil embargo and long gas lines during the Carter administration?? well, obviously Congress and Obama have memory failure or else think it can't happen again! Wake up Washington!!
10-29-2009 @ 5:51PM
donachuk said...
Oh and how do we do that? Did you forget we dont drill for oil, so we are at the mercy of OPEC and other producers of oil.
10-29-2009 @ 6:49PM
Heidi said...
Oil Hit $147 in August 2008, The stock market started collapsing in October. Two months is not really that much of a disconnect.
10-29-2009 @ 1:13PM
Snake oil said...
The SEC? The SEC ? The play offs? I wish I was on drugs like you . Trust.... my children..... is broken. We are on our own .the ship is adrift at sea.The captain and crew are drunk and the life boats are few. The SEC ? Security?
Commission: A doing;trust;charge;authority;compensation to an agent. v.to authorize. ... Authorize?Authorized a doing of american trust wilst compensating an agent of the SEC.
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10-29-2009 @ 1:53PM
joseph said...
Oil price goes up = Consumer confidence goes down. Other than oil companies making huge incomes other industries will suffer 'cause consumers will stop spending.
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10-29-2009 @ 2:02PM
Mike said...
I'd have to agree, Realist. Stocks seemed to move based on oil prices, which makes a lot of sense. I'd really hate to think our entire economy can be devastated by a bunch of unsophisticated home buyers who got themselves in over their heads. After all, for every foreclosed property that hits the market, there's somebody looking to buy. Other than the knuckleheads who bet their farms on mortgage-backed securities (and, of course, the idiots who bought $500,000 houses on $40k salaries), I don't see who got hurt by the "mortgage crisis." But, $5.00/gallon for fuel will put the brakes on an economy in a heartbeat. Somehow we've got to make speculation much less attractive.
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10-29-2009 @ 10:56PM
Mainaz57 said...
Stocks aren't moved on business failures? People don't lose their homes because of business failure and lack of jobs? I was earning 6 figures and watched my livlihood eaten up and affected by illegal alien workers and government regulations through the past 2 decades. Just a notion... your not one of the 52 % that works for the government are you???
10-29-2009 @ 2:27PM
SAM said...
we are still living it. it is 1929, where the hell have you been !
young kids that write these articles need to live and learn before they pick up a pen and write!
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10-29-2009 @ 5:43PM
David S. said...
Uh, not quite 1929, Sam. Keep in mind when the Great Depression hit, there was no safety net for anyone == unless you had savings. No unemployment insurance, no food stamps, nothing. Even for folks who could retire then there was no social security until 1935. That is why bread lines were everywhere.....we are not quite in the same boat, although unemployment is still high (pushing 10%) but at the height on the 1930's depression, it reached a staggering 30%.
10-29-2009 @ 2:38PM
Wild Bill said...
Hey boys and girls, here's a plan for taking over a nation and it's economy:
1) Start a bank and get some crooked politicians to put you and your cronies in charge of creating the nation's money [the privately-owned Federal Reserve].
2) Offer easy credit to everyone; greatly expand, and then contract, the money supply. When their markets collapse, they won't know what hit them and you can foreclose on their real estate and buy their stocks real cheap. Don't worry, the borrowers will point their fingers at each other, not at you.
3) Convince more crooked (or naive) politicians that they need stricter market regulation, and even suggest they put your Federal Reserve in charge of it all. That way, you can control your competition.
4) Repeat steps 2 and 3 as needed. It's just like playing Monopoly and being the banker, except you can 'print' new money or withdraw it, and the other saps won't know when.
5) Why work, when you create the money? Now you can buy almost anything, including more politicians. They go on sale twice a year.
6) Your grandchildren will thank you for their retirement plan, unless God saves their soul and opens their eyes, and they realize what you have done.
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10-29-2009 @ 5:13PM
Dave said...
You got it Wild Bill. Ever watch the documentary Zeitgiest?
10-29-2009 @ 3:02PM
Jim said...
The same thing happened in 1929 as in 2009, tax dollars went to big companies to save or create jobs after huge unemployment of the poor and middle classes. In other words, the rich got richer and the poor became poorer. Keep shrinking the middle class and see what you get.
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10-29-2009 @ 3:19PM
Yehuda Hamer said...
Don't believe these financial 'experts'
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10-29-2009 @ 3:19PM
Chuck said...
Actually things are pretty much paradise right now as unemployment in the Herbert Hoover era was at 25%.
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10-30-2009 @ 12:39AM
Mainaz57 said...
Don't we have twice the population than when Herbert Hoover was in??? How is it paradise? Another Government worker heard from...
10-29-2009 @ 3:37PM
Claude Oliver said...
Please read the Commodity Futures Act signed into law December 15, 2000, if you want THE REAL STORY:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Commodity_Futures_Modernization_Act_of_2000
Claude L. Oliver
Former Benton County Commissioner
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10-29-2009 @ 3:35PM
DAVO said...
WARNING FAKE ECONOMY AHEAD .
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