Offshoring: Will 25 percent of U.S. jobs end up overseas?
Filed under: Technology, Economy, People, Investing, Ford Motor Co., Wal-Mart Stores
For decades, pundits have argued about the values and dangers of offshoring. Recently, economist Alan S. Blinder weighed in with a paper examining the potential ramifications of the process. Dr. Blinder, who served on the Federal Reserve Board and Bill Clinton's Council of Economic Advisors, determined that approximately 30 to 40 million American jobs -- roughly 25 percent -- could be offshored to developing countries. Many analysts were quick to point out that "could" is miles away from "will," and have noted that Blinder's depressing conclusion doesn't automatically translate into a massive outflux of jobs. While this is certainly true, it ignores the devastating effect that offshoring has already had and minimizes the attraction that the program holds for business owners. Under the circumstances, the fact that 25 percent of jobs can go overseas suggests that -- if current trends continue -- a large percentage will eventually do so.
Back in the 1950's, when American businesses began moving manufacturing to other countries, the process seemed like a win-win situation. For business owners, moving factory jobs out of the country translated into cheaper labor costs and higher profits. For customers, it meant less expensive finished products and more presents under the Christmas tree. Even displaced workers, arguably the biggest losers in the process, could fall back on a robust job market filled with plenty of high-paying manufacturing jobs that required minimal retraining. In the ensuing decades, as the offshoring trend picked up, it was still easy to quell worries about disappearing jobs with the notion that the country was transforming into a service economy that was no longer reliant on low-paying, low-skill industrial work.
In the 1990's, the debate -- and the dynamics of offshoring -- began to shift, as telecommunication expansion and Internet growth meant that jobs in the service economy could also leave the country. Over time, it became clear that neither a college degree nor a white collar was sufficient to guarantee job security and high wages. As offshored call centers and data processing positions were followed by programming jobs, the term "Bangalored" gained currency as a way of explaining what happens when someone is laid off and his job is moved to India.
In America, education-intensive careers in engineering, medicine, and the legal profession have traditionally been perceived as secure and lucrative. However, "innovation offshoring" is making it possible to move research and development overseas, while health tourism and legal offshoring are making medical procedures and legal grunt work much cheaper. In the process, they are also crushing the lingering notion that offshoring is something that happens to other people, or that education is a hedge against losing one's job to a cheaper worker in another country.
On a purely economic basis, offshoring will always make sense. After all, regardless of one's profession, there is probably someone somewhere else in the world who is willing to do it for less. In India, for example, more than half of the country subsists on less than $2 per day, indicating an economy where even college-educated workers can low-ball a labor bid.
If, as Blinder indicates, 25 percent of American jobs can be offshored, the impetus for not doing so has to be more than merely economic. Blinder suggests that the government needs to adopt long-term policy moves that would limit the impact or extensiveness of offshoring. On a broader scale, however, it might be time to seriously consider the ultimate conclusion of this trend.
As offshoring has gained momentum, the wages of American workers have more or less frozen. From 1948 to 1973, the median income of single-earner families had a significant year-over-year growth, ultimately cresting at $44,368 in 2008 dollars. Since then, however, it has remained relatively stagnant; in 2008, it was pegged at $42,103. While this 36-year flatline may not seem all that impressive, it is crushing when compared with the gross domestic product, which grew seven fold in the same period, or the consumer price index, which grew more than five fold between 1973 and 2008.
It isn't hard to see why this has happened: if laborers have demanded a significant increase in their paychecks, companies have simply moved their operations to countries with cheaper workers. The trouble is, this emphasis on inexpensive consumer goods, services and workers has missed a key part of the equation: consumers. While India, China, Mexico and Bangladesh have proven themselves to be outstanding producers, they are not outstanding consumers and the American workers that they are undermining have recently had to sharply cut back on their expenditures.
While Henry Ford is often lionized for his role in spurring assembly-line manufacturing, his greatest contribution lay in his social vision. In 1914, he famously raised the minimum salary in his factory to $5 per day, more than twice the previous base pay. In addition to immediately spurring employee satisfaction, he also created a built-in consumer base for his product. Suddenly, Ford (F) workers could buy Ford cars; as they did so, the company's profits rose accordingly. Meanwhile, the American economy had a new model for business success: turn workers into consumers.
All this begs the question of who, exactly, will be buying the products that American companies are now producing overseas. While Walmart (WMT) is making a fortune by catering to the needs of an ever-increasing population of people who are living from paycheck to paycheck, it is also demonstrating the final step in the offshoring business strategy: poorly-constructed products made by subsistence workers in undemocratic countries are being sold on credit to subsistence workers in America. Meanwhile, the profits of this disaster, which Ford once famously shared with his workers, are finding their way into the pockets of a precious few superrich investors and business owners.
As the current economic malaise demonstrates, this process may be ultimately unsustainable; record profits inevitably come with a record price.



























Reader Comments (Page 1 of 4)
10-16-2009 @ 11:41AM
haroldashe said...
At long last, someone understands...
Reply
10-16-2009 @ 4:08PM
TROY said...
The answer to me is very clear. We all need to be more worried about the needs rather the wants. The wants are what is killing this country. The actual needs are very little cost. It is the wants that we are buying from the outsourced jobs. You want to stop outsourcing stop buying on credit. The processing centers will go away. Stop traveling so much you will not need a new car every couple of years. Yes it is something different than we have done, but I think this country is worth saving and keeping families together at home.
10-16-2009 @ 1:12PM
larry said...
It dosen't matter. The average American is to friggin stupid to understand they did it to themselves by voting for politicians who are owned by Corperate America. The average American is voting about such really important things like guns, gays and god as his lifestyle is devolving into the lifestyle of a third world peasant......I have no sympathy for these morons they are getting exactly what they deserve because they voted for it....................
Reply
10-16-2009 @ 1:29PM
don said...
good point. Stupid is a mild term to label people today.
Its beyond that. We have dumbed down this country
to a point of no return. Schools have failed our society.
Greed/profit is the rule of the day. May I ask with all
the jobs going offshore who is going to support the
younger ones in their ss and medicare days.
10-16-2009 @ 3:21PM
john said...
Certainly good points. If you elect pols who raise the minimum wage, jobs go overseas. If you slap companies with extreme environmental regulations, they go overseas. If you slap punitive taxes on companies, they move overseas. If OSHA insists on a safety belt for a 2' ladder, companies go overseas. We have indeed allowed a hand full of little 'do-gooders' to ruin the country. Tragic, sad and unnecessary. All it would have taken is just a modicum of common sense.
10-16-2009 @ 8:44PM
mark said...
its TOO friggin stupid not to. just helping. i also agree with you.
10-17-2009 @ 12:48PM
Manuel said...
People who say Americans are "to friggin stupid" to understand the workings of "Corperate" America should put their own houses in order (and maybe go back to school) before heaping grief on the rest of us. Is any politician in any party trustworthy any more? What we've got to do is get up off our couches, stop playing helpless, and take back the country in the name of hard work, enterprise, and basic integrity.
10-16-2009 @ 1:19PM
Concerned American said...
But W said offshoring was good for us. Isn't that all we need to know?
Reply
10-17-2009 @ 1:06PM
ij70 said...
But Slick Willy said offshoring was good for us. Isn't that all we need to know?
10-16-2009 @ 1:24PM
ThinkerMom said...
What began as a trickle became a geyser in the past approx. 10 years. Review our federal tax laws so it is not advantageous to move jobs out of our country.
Reply
10-16-2009 @ 1:26PM
FOXYLYNX said...
BOTH SIDES ARE OWNED BY BIG BUSINESS AND THE BANKS. THE FED IS SCREWING US OVER AND GOLDMAN IS MAKING MONEY HAND OVER FIST. THE ONLY WAY TO STOP THIS CORRUPTION IS TERM AND AGE LIMITS FOR THE CROOKS ON CAPITOL HILL. WE NEED A REVOLUTION THAT DEMANDS THIS, THEY WILL NEVER VOTE IT FOR THEMSELVES. DID YOU PEOPLE KNOW THAT OBAMA HAS NOW ALLOWED IMPORTS OF CHICKEN FROM CHINA - IT'S TRUE - WHO WOULD WANT TO EAT THAT.
Reply
10-16-2009 @ 1:45PM
Rob said...
Of course, how else do you treat a country who owns close to a trillion of US debt. Do you think that China is buying these huge amounts of US debt because it's a good investment? It's all about control and domination!!!! Bow down to China with great reverence because they are making it easier for Uncle sam to keep the handouts (socialism) coming.
10-16-2009 @ 4:08PM
Sally said...
You keep blaming the politicans. It has nothing whatsoever to do with politics. The blame lies squarely on the backs of business owners and the American consumer. Business is about nothing but profit and Americans are the ones buying all this garbage coming over here from China. Until Americans demand products made in America this trend will continue.
10-16-2009 @ 1:32PM
Joe said...
The writer does not mention that if the Congess and President Obama sign the new Health proposals into law, that will trigger the greatest outsourcing of both blue and grey collar jobs that America has ever experienced. If the public option is passed where most employers must elect to pay 8% of their employees wages into a government run healthcare program and it is not tax deductible versus having to offering to pay for all employees healthcare, they will export every job they can to third world countries where they have no requirements to provide worker's compensation insurance, healthcare, or even observe safety standards or quality standards. It creates an uneven palying field for American companies that try to hire employees in this country.
Less jobs here means less purchasing power here to buy those goods produced over there but the profits are still over there not here. Unless this march toward socialism where the working people have to pay all the bills for the uneducated and under performing residents and also pick up the bill for our horrible immigration laws letting illegals swarm into this country, then stick a fork in us, we will decline into a 3rd world country that does not have the backbone that our forefathers had in establishing the hard work ethic, self determination, and self pride that allowed our nation and it's people to become the richest and most giving nation on this earth.
Reply
10-16-2009 @ 4:44PM
playhookie said...
Joe, You forgot all the companies like GM bitchin about the cost of health insurance they have to dole out, making them less competitive than the rest of the world. Grow a brain on that stem please
10-16-2009 @ 2:07PM
john pezzullo said...
you have the power to change this use it.
Reply
10-16-2009 @ 2:15PM
BOOWAH said...
The fly in the ointment is "Who will do the buying of these goods manufactured overseas?" When you kill the American economy, you die with it! Why do you think that these countries aren't bailing out of the American dollar? It's because they know that warehouses full of unsold goods will pull them into this Depression faster than you can say "anarchy"
Reply
10-16-2009 @ 4:07PM
mhcontain said...
I have been talking about this for years. Now all you foreign car driving bastards, the chickens have come home to roost. Now it's your job instead of the greedy auto worker. START BUYING AMERICAN PRODUCTS. F WAL-MART BASTARDS HAVE DONE MORE TO RUIN OUR ECONOMY THAN ANY POLITICIAN.
Reply
10-16-2009 @ 4:54PM
jojo Le Boheme said...
in 2005 70% of GMC product was domestic, 50% of Ford's
and Chrysler an apalling 30%. I can't imagine what the numbers are now! Most foreign cars bought in America are made in America and are feeding the families that at one time were employed by one of the big three, that is before they started building plants in central and south america. Don't believe me, start looking at the engine, tranny and body VIN's of your so called "AMERICAN" vehicle. Learn the facts before you speak. Oh, by the way did you know that GM has at minimum 45 employees that make over a million bucks a year, many in double digit millions. The CEO of Toyota's salary is about $900,000. Get your head out of your ass!!!
10-17-2009 @ 4:31AM
DR said...
My foreign car is built by Americans in Kentucky, and my other car a Chevy Impala is built in Canada and contains 60% imported parts! I would rather buy my Honda with 92% American made parts and keep Americans working.