Middle class squeeze: The deep roots of an economic and social transformation
Filed under: Economy
The current recession has stoked deep-seated fears about a declining middle class. A great collective anxiety about such a decline has been floating around for years now, and for good reason. As abundant data make clear, middle class families are being squeezed by stagnant incomes and rising expenses, and have been since the 1970s. This week, Elizabeth Warren, chair of the Congressional Oversight Panel that is monitoring the TARP bailout funds given to banks, jumped into the debate on the topic. In an interview with The Washington Post, she said: "I believe that the middle class is under terrific assault."
An astute political player, she added: "And I don't want to play this as a capitalism issue." Actually, capitalism has quite a bit to do with the squeezing of the middle class -- but so do other factors, including government policy and deep structural changes in the global economy.
Here is more of Warren's statement on the subject, which provides a good sense of where middle class families stand today.
When we compare middle class families today with their parents a generation ago, we have basically flat earnings -- a fully employed male today earns on average about $800 less, adjusted for inflation, than a fully employed male earned a generation ago. The only way that families could increase their household income was to put a second earner into the workforce, and, of course that's now flattened out because there aren't any more people to put into the workforce. So you've got, effectively, flat income in this time period, with rising core expenses: housing; health insurance; child care; transportation, now that it takes two cars to get everywhere, two jobs to support; and taxes . . . families are spending a lot more on what you describe as the basic nut.So how did we get here? Today, the top one percent now takes in 16 percent of national income, up from eight percent in 1980. The top 20 percent receive over 50 percent of all income.
What happened?
What changed in the early 1970s to reverse the great postwar income convergence? A number of factors come into play, some more important than others. Three factors stand out: globalization, the emergence of a financial economy, and changes in government policy. Let's look at each one.
Globalization offers capital higher returns, consumers lower costs and employers what is known as "wage arbitrage" -- seeking out the highest value, lowest cost global workforce. Regardless of whether you agree with those who see globalization as the engine of wealth creation or as the force gutting middle class wages, it is capitalism writ large: capital flows to the highest returns.
Capital also flows along the path of least resistance. Contrary to received wisdom, capital doesn't flow to competition -- it seeks to bypass it or find markets which have no competitors. That is, it seeks the maximum risk/return ratio: the lowest risk, the highest return. The ideal risk/return scenario is a monopoly, in which the return can be raised even as the risk is reduced to near zero. A cartel or price-fixing scheme is near-ideal, too.
Though rarely noted, this is a longstanding trait of capitalism stretching back to Renaissance Venice. When trade became less profitable than farming due to rising competition, the Venetian elite stopped funding trade and bought farms on the Italian mainland. As a side effect, Venice ceased to be a military and trading power. But the elite remained immensely wealthy.
In other words, simply seeking out the lowest-risk, highest return can have pernicious consequences -- not just for the citizenry but for the nation.
Another important change in the early 1970s was the increasing flow of capital into the FIRE economy (finance, insurance and real estate), eschewing real-world investments as comparatively unprofitable. Some of this was due to globalization -- steel, for instance, could be produced cheaper in East Asia than in America -- but policies and regulations influenced this capital flow. For example, while the environmental regulations enacted in the U.S. in the 1970s have been a major success in terms of cleaning up the air, land and water we all share, in some cases they raised costs to the point that moving production overseas made financial sense.
The 1970s also saw the first beginnings of a loosening of financial regulations and the growth of credit and financial "innovations," such as securitization and derivatives. Capital increasingly fled real production for finance, which became the key profit-center of corporate America. GM didn't make money manufacturing autos; they made money selling loans to buy their cars. General Electric made more with its GECC finance arm than it did selling light bulbs and generators.
As a result, where finance and banking once generated a mere six percent of total U.S. corporate profits, by the height of the housing bubble in 2006 it was churning out 45 percent of all corporate profits. Indeed, U.S. "financial services and innovations" were the most heralded exports of the nation.
The pernicious result of this rising reliance on financial innovations and real estate was the growing appeal of speculation over the production of goods and services. To mention but one example: the average compensation of the top 10 hedge fund managers in the 2004-6 era was $600 million each. That is not a misprint: $600 million each.
Government policies actually encouraged this sort of risky speculation over actually investing in productive assets. To name but one example: hedge funds were allowed to report much of their speculative income as long-term capital gains, lowering their tax rate to 15 percent. Meanwhile, the tax rate paid by manufacturers of washing machines (for example) was 35 percent. Why invest in jobs, goods and services when playing with leverage and "innovations" was essentially rewarded by government policy?
Where Bill Gates, Michael Dell and Steve Jobs had built billion-dollar companies and fortunes developing real products for the real world, the fortunes made in the last decade resulted in large part from speculation and financial churn. Nothing was produced except an ephemeral kind of wealth that vanished in the meltdown of the very risk-laden "financial innovations" which were heavily touted as "safe" enough for the middle class to join in.
And join in we did, by the tens of millions. Having watched bigshot financiers speculate their way to hundreds of millions of dollars via leverage, the middle class household -- squeezed by flat wages and rising costs -- jumped into the housing and credit bubble with both feet. Millions extracted equity to spend on an upper-middle class lifestyle, while millions more speculated with extreme leverage (no or low down payments) to buy spec houses to flip for quick profits.
Borrowing capital on the cheap to invest in high returns is capitalistic to the core, and the result was the 1990s dot-com stock bubble (fueled by margin borrowing) and the 2000s housing bubble (fueled by low mortgage rates and minimal down payments). But we should note it was government policy which kept interest rates at historically unprecedented low levels.
Alas, the risks -- presented as low in each case -- turned out to be high, and each easy-credit-fueled bubble imploded, wiping out trillions of dollars in middle class wealth. The housing bubble bursting has been far more devastating to middle class wealth than the dot-com implosion of Internet stocks, for the reason that the house has long been the major store of middle class household wealth, not the 401K or stock trading account.
Studies have shown that the top 10 percent of American households own three fourths of all stocks and bonds; most middle class stock and bond holdings are modest. Thus the meltdown of the NASDAQ bubble did not do irreparable damage to middle class household wealth. But the bursting of the housing bubble did do irreparable damage to many household balance sheets. Seduced by cheap, easy credit, middle class households filled the gap between their flat wages and rising bills with borrowed money. While housing was rising, this debt could be offset with rising equity. But once housing popped, then assets receded, leaving only the debt.
Something else changed in the early 1970s: the U.S. government launched a long-term policy of devaluing the dollar. While this is often referred to as "inflation," it is in essence a devaluation of the U.S. dollar. It now takes $486 to equal $100 in 1973. A dollar bought over 300 Japanese yen in 1973; now it buys about 90 yen. The net result of this stealth depreciation of the dollar is that purchasing power has declined even as nominal wages and wealth have increased.
While "inflation" has risen almost five-fold, the cost of many essentials has risen much more than that. Chief among these is health care, which has skyrocketed to 16 percent of the entire GDP. Are we two times healthier than we were a few decades ago? That is hard to pin down, but we certainly pay two times more for medical care, adjusted for inflation.
This tremendous rise in health care costs acts as a hidden tax on the entire U.S. economy, making the nation less competitive and diverting discretionary household income to the health care complex. What's often lost in the current health care debate is that very few are willing to tackle the elephant in the room: skyrocketing costs. Merely shifting the burden from employers to taxpayers is accomplishing very little in the overall picture.
Where do we go from here?
The story of the middle class squeeze is complex, but its effects are not hard to see. Despite an increase in national wealth over the last 40 years, the wages and wealth of most of the U.S. population are flat at best. Owners of capital and the professional class, who make up the top five percent (or less), are the only ones who received the benefits of economic growth over the last few decades.
While some observers point to middle class ownership of stocks and bonds as evidence that this trend benefits the middle class as well as the wealthy, they fail to note that middle class ownership of stocks and bonds is a mile wide but an inch deep. The vast majority of households own less than $10,000 in stocks or bonds, including IRAs.
During the recent speculative mania, elite and middle class interests seem to converge, as everyone appeared to benefit from the real estate bubble except the poor. But this convergence was illusory; while the financial elites and government benefited (via stupendous capital gains taxes), the private-sector middle class was in essence the bag-holder. When the newfound "wealth" in housing and stock market gains vanished, it was middle class wealth which was destroyed en masse.
Both capitalism and government policy have brought the nation to its present financial situation. To blame one and hold the other blameless is missing a lot of history. And just as each contributed to the current recession, so each must be part of the solution.
Charles Hugh Smith writes the Of Two Minds blog and is the author of numerous books, most recently, Survival+: Structuring Prosperity for Yourself and the Nation.



























Reader Comments (Page 1 of 10)
10-10-2009 @ 8:17AM
Paul said...
Good Article, however there is one Very Important piece that was Forgotten and that is the problem with Dwindling Natural Resources, Overpopulation and Lack of a form of Mandatory Birth Control. In 1960, we had a world population of just 3 Billion. today we have almost 7 Billion and rising. Ou Planets Natural Resources are being used up at a Very Alarming rate and unless we can start Mining other Planets and the Moon within 5 years We all are in Deep Deep Doo Doo. Just do the Math
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10-10-2009 @ 2:09PM
Mike said...
That is a good point too, Paul. One other thing contributed to where we are too....Greed!!! Greed on an industrial basis. The exploitation of cheap labor in under developed countries at the expense of American jobs. Greed on a corporate level where these managers collect bonuses to the tune of 600m which is more than the whole Hummer division is selling for to the Chinese. Greed with people getting into houses they couldnt afford or refinancing the ones they had and spending the money that was gained from that. Reaganomics contributed to a lot of the hooray for me and the hell with you attitude of the present day. The trickle down method was a good idea but Reagan didnt take into account the greed of the wealthy, so the trickle down method was more like a drip if even that. Reagan had one good idea, however, that worked. The promotion of small businesses. Unfortunately they were the first to take a beating in this recession/depression.
10-10-2009 @ 3:58PM
Andy said...
I disagree its mans greed that has done us in. There is enough resources on this planet its just mans greed that gets in the way.
10-11-2009 @ 4:38PM
James said...
Good comment Paul, I always thought that when we introduced Nafta and competition from emigrants in
our country, that we would eventually see our standard
of living decrease, and we have a way go. Until other
countries raise their standard of living we will see ours
decline.
10-11-2009 @ 6:38PM
Jon said...
Paul and Mike, you're both falling for the Great Lie. It's not overpopulation that's the problem, or the dwindling of our abilitiy to get enough resources for ourselves. In any area where there is any real issue, there's ways of dealing with it. The problem is America was founded, built, and grown under the system of "getting rich quick so I can retire like a king" at the expense of the masses who are hard at work to get their American Dream. Even before then, even the American Dream wasn't on the table, for those who were enslaved, and the masses of poor, working class whites/immigrants. The problem is distribution is screwed up, mainly because of greed. The top 5 to 10% of the richest in corporate and banking have pillaged the nation and the world with cheap labor, cheap products, low wages, and big debt to close the gap in what they didn't want to psy you to buy their products. Essentially taking money out from both ends of the economy. Under this system, you will inevitably have a crash. It's only a matter of when, and how bad it will be. Personally, the only thing that makes sense is they want to devalue the dollar to the point they can reset America's economic clock about 70 years, so they can bring back the real production they sent overseas, but at slave wages here. The only way that will work under the banner of Life, Liberty, and Pursuit of Happiness that AMericans have believed is their birthright, is to make Americans so poor, so desperate, and so hungry, they will have to accept whatever conditions you throw at them in employment for whatever pay. Then put a patriotic spin on it and say:"Sacrifice! Do it for your country, not the pay or benefits! We must rebuild!" (Just don't expect the elite in government and big business to "sacrifce" along with you in that poverty for the country)
10-12-2009 @ 10:07AM
JVC said...
Remember soluent (?) green ? Eat me.
10-10-2009 @ 8:27AM
C said...
OK, we already knew the statements of the above article are true, whether the wealthy want to acknowledge it or not !
The question to be answered is do our representatives in Washington have the fortitude to enact the changes that will restore as much as is possible the balance to that of America's "Golden Era" of the past ! Scales only tilt so far before they fall over if not rebalanced.............is this really the fate we want for America ?
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10-10-2009 @ 8:28AM
Realist said...
An excellent, in-depth article, but probably beyond the comprehension of 90% of the readers. The author draws no conclusions as to "what will happen". Lets never lose sight of the nature of man. Why have South and Central American countries experienced so many revolutions? Because their citizens had...NOTHING TO LOSE! I expect that we are on the verge of this same situation. Revolutions need not take the form of citizens with guns rampaging through the streets. It could take many other forms incuding a massive tax revolt under the heading....we aren't going to take it any more! Perhaps violence against the wealthy elite. The next couple of years will be very interesting.
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10-11-2009 @ 3:11AM
Amerikanisch said...
Well, going after the wealthy doesn't seem very productive.
How about demanding a third party and voting out the Congress that let them loot us in the first place.
If you go after the wealthy, Congress will just slip them more through the back door next time.
10-10-2009 @ 8:44AM
lionel said...
THIS IS WHAT HAPPENS WHEN THE DUMMIES VOTE IN A COMMUNIST GOVT.
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10-10-2009 @ 9:23AM
vaughnvdg said...
This is what happens when we have GREEDY REPUBLICANS running the WHITEHOUSE for 22 of the last 30 YEARS my friend.
10-10-2009 @ 11:18PM
D. said...
I assume you're referring to the Bush Administration.
10-10-2009 @ 11:21PM
bub said...
Lionel--Truer words have never been spoken-"Voting in a communist government"--and even if we get the damacrats
out how do you get back AMERICA ?
10-10-2009 @ 11:21PM
Facundo said...
Over the last 8 years we saw what happens when the dummies vote in a retarded man and his puppet master Cheney.
10-12-2009 @ 3:41PM
kirktalon said...
This communist scare stuff really has had too much of an effect.
10-10-2009 @ 8:45AM
RON said...
i have been saying many of the same things for years.
one thing that sickens me about our country is we have allowed paper pushers to rule our econony.
many americans have gotten lazy, take no responsiblity for their actions, take no pride in their country ,city or state.
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10-25-2009 @ 1:18PM
layers5252 said...
ron, what have you done? hmmmmmmmmmmmmm?
10-10-2009 @ 9:15AM
Scribe said...
The author left out the advent of the role of women in the workplace and its sociological and economic implications. The "glory years of the great American post-war boom" overwhelmingly had stay-at-home women with a wage-earning male as the economic provider. This was a huge change in the American workforce and a revolutionary effect on most of the issues raised by the author.
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10-10-2009 @ 9:00AM
Paul said...
Actualy, Americas Golden era started to decline around 1959 although it wasnt Publicly noticed until around 1970. The Problem we now face with dwindling resources can be can be eased somwhat by Mandating a Near Total Recycling Program that will make our new stuff out of the old stuff. For the last 100 years we have been destroying Our Home Planet by Plundering its Natural Resources to the point of Depletion and that is what Must Stop. For example, The Deforestation of our Old Growth Forests only to be replaced by mere Pine trees is Not a good thing. Local Farmland that once grew our Food fell into the hands of House Developers just for the sake of a Short Term Dollar so now we have to Import Much of our Food. Mines are being stripped to the point that now they are a Dander to work in. Water is ever increasingly being Polluted and the Air in Many places is Unfit to breath. We have Lost Much of Our Atmospheric Protection layer and now we have to Geneticly Modify much of our Food just so we can keep up with demand and Ecological Changes. I do Not believe we have any more Golden days ahead unless we can Overcome these Problems and get some regulation on Birth rate and Overpopulation
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10-10-2009 @ 8:01PM
nana7 said...
They will never get population under control. All the illigetiment births. WIC where you get more food then a kid can eat. Plus they get food stamps for each of these kids also..
I had major surgery, had 1 day to prepare for it.. Everyone said go to social services for financal help.. I've 2 kids.. well, grandkids,, Was told, no help, they aren.t there to help pay rent or electric.. I begged doctor to let me back to work in a month.. I'm paying for going back to work early..
Always paid rent on time and explained to landlord why I needed time to catch up and he worked with me.. In fact has not raised my rent in over 2 yrs, while neighbors complain about their rent increases., I can't afford rent increase. Neighbors earn $49,000 and up and always late, I make $7.60 an hour...