ADP employment report shows worse than expected job losses in September
Filed under: Economy
The private sector cut 254,000 jobs in September, according to data in the ADP National Employment Report. The August figure was revised to 277,000 jobs lost, down from the initial estimate of 298,000. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News had expected private employers to cut 200,000 jobs in September.
ADP noted that the 254,000 private payroll cutback was the smallest since July 2008. Nevertheless, "employment, which usually trails overall economic activity, is likely to decline for at least several more months, with losses continuing to diminish," ADP said.
The job loss totals in September by business size were 61,000 (large), 93,000 (medium), and 100,000 (small).
The service sector, a strong point during the recent economic expansion, lost 103,000 jobs. Manufacturing lost 74,000 jobs. The construction sector lost 73,000, its 32nd consecutive monthly decline, and brought total construction jobs lost since the January 2007 peak to 1.632 million.
Investors should monitor the jobs report because job creation is positively correlated with corporate revenue and earning gains. And as corporate earnings go, so goes the U.S. stock market.
Job creation is the key to consumption, and consumption helps drive U.S. GDP. However, given a decade of over-consumption and stagnant incomes in many job classifications, few economists expect consumption patterns to return to the home equity-driven years of the housing bubble. Nevertheless, many economists do expect both consumer spending and business investment to trend slightly higher beginning in the second half of 2009.
Analysis: To be sure, a disappointing private sector employment report for September. Still, the optimist would see the continuing downtrend in job layoffs. Even so, investors should note the September total is a far cry from the 150,000 to 200,000 jobs the U.S. economy needs to add every month in order to lower unemployment.
Investors also should keep in mind that the more telling statistic, containing both private and public sector job data, is the U.S. Labor Department's monthly payroll data; the September data will be released Friday, October 2 at 8:30 a.m. EDT. That report is expected to show a 170,000-job loss in September, following a 216,000 job loss in August, according to a Bloomberg News survey of economists.



























Reader Comments (Page 1 of 9)
9-30-2009 @ 9:48AM
kevin said...
This can't be good.
Reply
9-30-2009 @ 12:22PM
mickey said...
The problem is the business. They've already shed jobs due to the economy, now they are shedding people and trying to make their employees do the work of two. Its a nasty trick they are pulling but they think its an employers market so they are going to wring us dry until we die, all in the name of business. I'm back to no eating out, no vacation, very little Christmas, a lot of window shopping but NO BUYING. HAVE A TRADITIONAL CHRISTMAS WITH HOMEMADE GOODIES. Make these businesses fail or at least make them get on their knees and plead for forgiveness.
9-30-2009 @ 5:21PM
thec2u said...
Mickey, how can you wish a company that did all it can to stay in business fail all because they make those they retain work harder? You are welcome to quit your job if you don't like it. Thare are lines waiting to fill your place.
9-30-2009 @ 10:01AM
Martha Kimery said...
Media writers and headline writers hold some of the responsibility for the intensity of the recession and much of the responsibility for the dip in consumer confidence. Each story and particularly each headline seems to emphasize the negative aspect of what can also be seen as a positive or improving picture. Hitting people in the face with negativity can only lower confidence. Bad news may sell, but it also depresses the economy.
Reply
9-30-2009 @ 10:17AM
steve said...
Martha writes:
"Media writers and headline writers hold some of the responsibility for the intensity of the recession and much of the responsibility for the dip in consumer confidence. Each story and particularly each headline seems to emphasize the negative aspect of what can also be seen as a positive or improving picture. Hitting people in the face with negativity can only lower confidence. Bad news may sell, but it also depresses the economy"
What is your point? This is a unemployment number. Not a consumer confidence number. And talk about the media, except for a few they are nothing but puppets on a string for Obama. In general the media has been spinning this horrible economy positive. I dont know what you are seeing, but they have been spinning a recovery is underway for months and that there is no more recession. If anything they are trying to dupe the naive into spending more then they have, starting the same problem that casued this.
9-30-2009 @ 11:46AM
Steve T said...
well said!!! I agree 100%
9-30-2009 @ 7:43PM
Michael said...
You are partly right. The media did spend lots of ink trying to convince the public that the economy was a mess during the Bush administration, especially after Bush pulled us out of the dot-com bust and the 9/11 slump. After the democrats took over congress and the economy really did start lagging we heard very little until a month or two before the election.
9-30-2009 @ 10:08AM
jack said...
Yet, they say home prices are rising, and the economic index is rosy.
There is no recovery. Things will not get better, until we rid Washington of all the wasteful spending. We need to outlaw
lobbing. We need to make this a Treasonous offence.
We need to close our borders, and become an Isolationist Country.
Reply
9-30-2009 @ 12:49PM
Ted said...
I definitely agree that all political lobbying must be stopped - it has been a growing "cancer" within our political system and will only become worse as big corporations desperately seek new means to successfully achieve new and undeserved heights of corruption, power and money at the expense of the US citizen.
Political lobbying must be recognized and identified for what is truly is: An act of "TREASON" .... it should be considered to be a serious offense against the United States and its citizens and should hold equally serious consequences for lobbyists, corporations and politicians alike. This should be an issue of high priority in D.C. but...Don't hold your breath because it is a big source of easy income for our politicians.
As far as closing the US borders to foreign commerce -- this seems unlikely with the NAFTA Highway currently under construction. If you don't already know, our gov is participating with Mexico and Canada in the construction of the largest (and, possibly most secret) highway system ever built connecting southwestern Mexico through the US into Canada.
The plan is presented in numerous gov reports which can be viewed on Google and... the highway construction has already been completed through Mexico including the State of Texas.
This NAFTA Highway will have its first border checkpoint coming from Mexico located in Kansas City, Kansas. The Mexican truckers and rail system, which parallels the highway, will have open access into the US unchecked until the Kansas City checkpoint.
Why is this NAFTA highway so necessary?...It is planned (and published) that Chinese goods will be shipped via large container cargo ships to a deep water port in southern Mexico; the cargo will then be transferred to either truck or rail and then shipped north into the US through this huge highway & rail corridor. Of course this will negatively affect the future of US jobs as China and Mexico will have much easier access to both our country and our local store shelves.
It's no wonder why the NAFTA Highway hasn't received more public awareness in the US ...It's simply bad for the US worker as more jobs here will be lost to manufacturing of cheap products in China.
9-30-2009 @ 10:17AM
Steve said...
Dont worry the Obama puppets will spin it to make it positive. Anyway thanks Obama for keeping your campaign promise of helping Main St and hurting Wall St, such an honest man! That has surrounded himself with such great people from tax evaders to terrorists to America Haters. "Yes We Can" what he can do is screw the middle class and boy is he doing that! This is the change he promised. Never in history has it been so divided. The richest 1% have more wealth then the first 95%. In perspective thats about 3.3 million have more wealth then 313.5 million. "Yes We Can"
Reply
9-30-2009 @ 12:28PM
MICKEY said...
The middle class is being thrown under the bus. I guess that's the CHANGE I voted for. I mean, I've never been thrown under the bus before. I'm sorry I voted for him. My apologies to all.
9-30-2009 @ 10:12AM
Thomas Semesky said...
Obama fiddles while Rome burns.
Reply
9-30-2009 @ 10:21AM
john l ballard said...
The big problem is there are no more trade barriers. All the protection we had in the past is gone allong with our way of life
9-30-2009 @ 4:10PM
Bill said...
Speaking of the Romans, I see our fearless leader concerned about the 2016 Olympic games!!
I guess he thinks we will still have a country in 2016. What kind of a moron leader would be concerned about "games" when this constituents are dropping like flies here at home.
I guess he didn't get the memo that that the mortgage/rent payment is due tomorrow, and millions of us are broke!!
How arrogant. How dare he spend 5 seconds worrying about the Olympics 5 years from now!!! The number one issue has
to be JOBS in this country. Screw the Olympic games, I need to feed my family TODAY!!!
9-30-2009 @ 10:14AM
alvin said...
we need to add 200,000 jobs a month but we lose 250,000. in essence thats a turnaround of 450,000. the suits in washington said 9 months ago they were going to save/create 3,000,000 which was a lie.
Reply
9-30-2009 @ 5:37PM
Chuck said...
How can anyone possibly say Obama lied?? THis just part of the 'change" he promised!! Remember Congressman Joe Wilson was admonished for his "truth"!!
Mr. Obama , where are the JOBS you promised. By the way, Mr. Obama, there is still a war going on and you are needed to make some decisions. Don't let our troops "hang out to dry!!""
9-30-2009 @ 10:17AM
Cathy said...
So, how is hope and change working out for you?
The only thing Congress and The President should be doing is:
paying off the national debt.
putting the dollar back on the gold standard.
stopping deficit spending.
and auditing The Fed.
THEN...they can make whatever reforms their constituents want and need within those confines.
they should not be doing anything that will not keep our dollar and our constitution strong!
Reply
9-30-2009 @ 5:28PM
MyKisa said...
....All monetary problems begin at the fed reserve
9-30-2009 @ 10:24AM
luette said...
Don't worry, the liberals found us a nice community organizer to save us......the fact he worked for corrupt Acorn, and really had zero experience should not be mentioned.....or the fact that he has so far accomplished NOTHING and spent TRILLIONS of our money, should also not be mentioned, or the idea that he has the admiration of world class Dictators and Terrorists should not be mentioned.....HE WILL SAVE US
Reply
9-30-2009 @ 12:21PM
penn said...
How quickly we forget about the expense wars that Bush started in Iraq under the false pretense of Iraq hiding nuclear facilities. Obama hasn't even been in office for a year. He is trying to clean up Bush's mess, give him a little time.