U.S. consumer confidence dips unexpectedly
Filed under: Economy
Despite a rising stock market, consumers continue to display a cautious stance toward the U.S. economy. Consumer confidence unexpectedly dipped in September to 53.1 from 54.5 in August, the Conference Board announced Tuesday, with the index driven lower by concern about jobs and business conditions.
A Bloomberg News survey of economists had expected the index to rise to 57.0 in September; it totaled 47.4 in July and 44.8 in June. The index hit a record low of 25.3 in February. (Base year, 1985=100.)
Lynn Franco, director of the Conference Board's Consumer Research Center, said the September data is not what retailers and other consumer-based businesses want to see as the fall begins. "While not as pessimistic as earlier this year, consumers remain quite apprehensive about the short-term outlook and their incomes. With the holiday season quickly approaching, this is not very encouraging news," Franco said in a statement.
Further, consumers' assessment of current conditions fell in September. Those claiming business conditions are "bad" increased to 46.3 percent in September from 44.6 percent in August, while those claiming business conditions are "good" inched up to 8.7 percent from 8.5 percent.
Also, consumers' assessment of the job market was less favorable than last month. Those saying jobs are "hard to get" increased to 47.0 percent in September from 44.3 percent in August, while those claiming jobs are "plentiful" decreased to 3.4 percent from 4.3 percent.
In addition, the board said consumers' short-term expectations were more pessimistic, as well. Consumers expecting business conditions to improve over the next six months decreased to 21.3 percent in September from 22.2 percent in August, while those expecting conditions to worsen dipped to 15.0 percent from 15.2 percent.
Investors should pay attention to the Consumer Confidence Index because, historically, consumer spending has accounted for about 60 to 65 percent of U.S. GDP. Moreover, rises in consumer confidence are directly correlated to increases in consumer spending. Hence, if confidence rises, and a trend forms, that most likely means good things are ahead for corporate revenue and earnings.
The Consumer Confidence Index is based on a representative sample of 5,000 households.
Economic Analysis: September showed a disappointing decline in consumer confidence. Hopefully, it's just a momentary pause, but it's understandable why consumers continue to take a reserved stance toward the economy, given the continued monthly job losses, and of course the U.S.'s high unemployment rate of 9.7 percent.
Still, considering the likelihood that the recession has bottomed, consumer confidence should resume its upward trek. If it doesn't in the months ahead, Congress, among other measures, might want to consider extending the $8,000 federal income tax credit for first-time home buyers, which is scheduled to expire later this year. The program has prompted some home purchases, providing a mild stimulus to the economy.



























Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
9-29-2009 @ 2:20PM
Duke said...
This should be no surprise at all. Winter is coming and so is Christmas. Families want to make sure their children have a Christmas and will save for it. Jobs still are scarce and tax increases are right around the corner at all levels, city, state, and federal. Pay increases are no existant putting more strain on the budget. Americcans want to get out of debt. They want to live within thier means and never get caught in a bubble burst again. So consumers are getting savy and it is being felt all through the economy.
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9-29-2009 @ 1:09PM
David said...
How can anything be a surprise when the employment, spending and in other statistics are always fabricated to keep the "markets" propped up?
Time to wake up folks. Financial implosion is just around the corner.
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9-29-2009 @ 1:57PM
userlee said...
Who are the ones they are polling? I have never been
asked by anyone what I thought about anything, and I
vote just like the rest of them. Our economy stinks,
the politicians think they can brainwash us into believing
that the economy is getting better? That is a bunch of B.S.
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9-29-2009 @ 3:15PM
Jim Robertson said...
I have to agree with my fellow posters on this board. I am a retiree of 13 years and my income has remained the same except for the small S. S. increases (which we are not going to get this year and probably next). It would be bearable if expenses had not risen in all aspects that affect my purchasing power. Local fees and taxes along with food and gasoline have eroded my ability to save and go on vacations. How in the world could consumer confidence be rising with so many people on fixed incomes, retirees and worst of all the millions without a job.
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