Cheer up, retailers! Holiday sales will be up after all
Filed under: Economy
It's beginning to look a lot like Christmas won't be a total disaster for retailers after all. Just as unemployment numbers appear to be turning, and the economy is showing a pulse, holiday sales forecasts are turning more positive than even a month ago. The International Council of Shopping Centers just went out on a limb and forecast that this year's holiday sales will be higher than last year's. Only a week ago, forecasts were calling for a flat holiday, and in August, shoppers were looking like Scrooge.
In a report by Chief Economist Michael P. Niemira, the ICSC is projecting holiday sales will be up one to two percent above last year's numbers. "That is not strong, but it is likely to be much better than in 2008, and signal better times ahead for 2010," Niemira's report states.
This will be the stores' first non-recession holiday in three years, according to the ICSC's report. Economic growth is starting to turn around, even with some pockets of weakness, and consumer confidence is slowly improving, which will give way to some increased gift buying.
But don't worry about the shelves going bare. Despite the retailers' efforts to cut back on inventory, shortages won't depress sales. Niemira's report looked back to the last recession, in 2001, to note that holiday sales picked up around three percent, even through retailers had cut back inventory then, too.
Niemira also warned not to get too excited by the positive numbers, because they're compared to a lousy season in 2008, when retailers saw sales drop in the three to five percent range, depending on the store type.
So the comparison to last year pads this year's forecast by anywhere from two to five percentage points. Looking at the underlying sales numbers, this holiday is going to look more like 2005 -- before the peak of the housing bubble that had turned American homes into ATMs.
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Reader Comments (Page 1 of 3)
9-28-2009 @ 3:31PM
Iridium said...
Really??? In the year of putting school supplies on layaway holiday sales are going to be up???
With more Americans out of work or on reduced pay than ever before, they are going to buy big ticket items for Christmas.
What a joke. Best Buy can't give flat panel TVs away. Sets that were selling at $2800 a few months ago are marked down to $1500 and still can't sell.
I've never seen older inventory in stores before. Target looks like 3/4s of the store is on clearance.
Keep on wishing though. At least you can be happy with the fact that corporations will find some accounting loophole to make the numbers look good when they are really terrible.
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9-28-2009 @ 6:49PM
mickey said...
Blowing smoke up our a$$e$. Come on, think about it. Who in the hell believes these people can predict what the holiday season is going to do? Its all about softening up the public, get the public in a giddy mood, laughing gas, ha ha ha, ho ho ho, spend money, ha ha, ho ho. Don't be left out of the spending spree. SORRY, NOT ME, VERY LITTLE CHRISTMAS, NO CREDIT CARDS, NO EXTRA MONEY, SAME AS LAST YEAR OR WORSE. Now, who do you believe???
9-28-2009 @ 7:39PM
mark said...
You are correct. People should stop watching the news as it is no more than government brainwashing.
9-28-2009 @ 5:19PM
joe said...
What do you expect the head of a trade organization to say. It is going to suck and our industry sucks? This guy is banking on the recession being over, he says so. Guess he did not hear that it is a jobless recovery - what ever that is. No jobs, no consumer spending. Corporations do not shop at christmas at the mall.
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9-28-2009 @ 5:26PM
Charles Carter said...
By Christmas, they will admit that this "recession" is a depression. No more whistling in the dark like that article. This is one time I hope I am wrong.
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9-28-2009 @ 5:31PM
Donna said...
No Jobs, No Money$$, = No Buying
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9-28-2009 @ 5:36PM
refuse2lose said...
They will say anything to try and get people to spend their money.I am just wondering how they figure millions of people who will be running out of employment benefits can afford to shop.And the others who have had their hours cut.And the others who just plain gave up even looking for work.There must be some alien life forms they plan on flying in for the holiday season.
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9-28-2009 @ 6:31PM
tish said...
alien life forms cute. Thanks for laugh!!!
9-28-2009 @ 5:37PM
Jenny65 said...
My husband and I are fortunate, we still have our jobs, and guess what, we won't be buying! Those days are over. With the constant threat of the government taking away more and more money, it's creating an atmosphere of hoarding!
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9-28-2009 @ 5:58PM
snapper53 said...
I agree with you 100% Jenny65,we are doing okay but far from great,my husband had to take a job paying less than half of what he was making before,but at least it is a job, and we won't be spending much this holiday season or anytime soon!!!
9-28-2009 @ 5:54PM
L R said...
Just keep beating the *Hell* out those Christians for being a Christian and hopefully they will stop spending their money at Christmas Time. In 2010 they are threatening to celebrate Christmas in *Spirit Only* by just Going to church. No toys* No Gifts* Absolute No presents at all.
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9-28-2009 @ 6:24PM
sonnype said...
What planet are those people living on that make up the council? more people are loosing their jobs and foreclousers are still rising.There are 6 unemployed people for every one job opening .Put lipstick on a pig and its still a pig.
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9-28-2009 @ 6:26PM
tish said...
This article is a joke, right?
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9-28-2009 @ 6:33PM
Bob said...
This is just rich!!! I can't believe this chief economist "Niemira" can say "sales will be up" with a straight face. I would love to see his forecast model. I'll bet it has a spinning roulette wheel in it somewhere. How irresponsible and shameful to push such rhetoric. This guy is worse than the government and their "spend, spend spend" propoganda. Disgusting. Let's all just blow what money wall street and congress didn't take from us on non-appreciating assets. We'll all feel so much better for a day!!!
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9-28-2009 @ 6:50PM
Burt said...
Is what your taking a"controlled" substance? Could it be that you think we are all that stupid ! I drive past sooooo much retail space that is closed, WOW.
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9-28-2009 @ 6:59PM
Mary Anna said...
oh please...will all you corporate idiots stop with your tireless crap..I find it hard to believe that you actually think that we will all be shopping this holiday season. Unemployment will continue to rise albeit in smaller numbers each month and those who have jobs are too afraid to spend their money.
I for one, will be packing up my home which I have to give back to the bank, and my holidays will be spent trying to figure out where to live.....
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9-28-2009 @ 7:07PM
JR said...
Really ? What country is this forecast for - it can't be the U.S.
Retail experts do this every year between now and Thanksgiving weekend. They try to create consumer optimism about the holiday selling period and then it just falls apart by Dec. 25th. Start your shopping now though because the retailers are cutting costs by cutting inventories on everything. There will be nothing left worth buying by Dec. 25th.
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9-28-2009 @ 7:18PM
07 Shelby said...
Is it me or is this guy smoking the same bag of crack that Bernanke is? This fake until you make it business philosophy just doesn't cut it anymore! This is like a bad joke that everyone has heard over and over and is no longer amusing! I would guess this guy wouldn't want to stake his high paying job on his forcast! No one is buying anything anymore. How are you going to buy christmas stuff when you are unemployed and your house is being foreclosed on like millions in this country! Wall street needs to get with the program on main street because they are so far from reality it isn't funny! I make a six figure income that is solid and I am cutting way back again this year. If it isn't paid in cash, it isn't getting bought. If people in my income range are doing the same thing, what do you think the poor stiff that just lost his job is doing, this is the reality!
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9-28-2009 @ 7:18PM
robin said...
They have to be kidding. We didn't even put up a christmas tree last year doesn't look any better this year. Unemployed since june 2008
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9-28-2009 @ 7:18PM
Dennis said...
The unemployment numbers appear to be turning!! What figures are you looking at? What a joke!! I spent nothing last year and will do less this year. What a lib puff piece this is. They have those rose colored glasses on again...LMFAO!!
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