Are we ready for swine flu's second wave? No one really knows
Filed under: Healthcare, Sanofi Aventis
With kids back in school and winter on its way, swine flu is expected to spread big time. Some forecasts warn the H1N1 virus could potentially infect half the U.S. population by the end of the year. The question is, are we ready?The H1N1 virus first emerged in Mexico earlier this year, setting off panic around the globe. But the initial scare subsided after the virus turned out to be less severe than originally feared. Still, it has spread at an alarming rate, sickening children and young adults more frequently than the typical seasonal flu. And now with the second wave starting to hit, officials still don't agree on how serious it will be. In short, they're racing against time to meet an enemy who remains a rapidly moving target.
In the United States during roughly the same period (up to August 30), there have been 9,079 hospitalizations and 593 deaths, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). Compare that with the last pandemic in the U.S. that killed 34,000 in 1968.
But doctors fear a possible surge in cases in the fall, if what happened in the Southern Hemisphere is any guide. That region of the world is just coming off its winter, which saw a flare-up in cases that coincided with its traditional flu season. The new H1N1 flu now accounts for 76 percent of influenza viruses circulating globally, according to the WHO.
Some of the forecasts have been downright scary. The H1N1 swine flu could infect half the U.S. population this fall and winter, according to the President's Council of Advisors on Science and Technology report. The same report warns 1.8 million people could end up in hospitals and that there could be as many as 90,000 deaths -- more than double the number that occur in an average flu season.What's more, the presidential council says 60 to 120 million people are expected to show symptoms, mostly mild ones, with up to 300,000 people who could require intensive care. By contrast, the seasonal flu is associated with 30,000 to 40,000 deaths and 200,000 hospitalizations each year.
But not all experts agree with the presidential council's rather grim scenario. For one, the CDC says the numbers are too high. While swine flu spreads easily, it so far hasn't been more deadly than the other seasonal flu strains seen every fall and winter, the CDC said. Some experts actually would prefer to deal with swine flu over the regular seasonal influenza virus, saying it is milder and lasts less time.
Regardless of the differences in severity forecasts, swine flu represents a formidable foe. Among some of the challenges are its fast spread rate and the high infection rate among young adults. Swine flu spreads four times faster than other viruses and 40 percent of the fatalities are young adults in good health, WHO Director General Margaret Chan told France's Le Monde. "This virus travels at an unbelievable, almost unheard of speed," she told the daily
Other challenges? Influenza viruses are unpredictable and tend to mutate, experts add. A combination, say, of the highly transmittable -- but mild -- H1N1 virus with the less easily transmittable -- but deadly -- H5N1 could produce a nightmare virus: one that is highly transmittable and very deadly. To prepare for the worst case, CDC scientists are now working on combining the two in the lab to better understand the potential, reported the WSJ Health Blog. But so far, close genetic tracking of the virus as it circled the globe over the last few months has shown no sign that it's mutating to become more virulent, the CDC said.
The other problem, of course, is a potential shortage of vaccines. On that front, the Obama Administration has gotten into gear, recently appropriating $2.7 billion to buy swine flu drugs and vaccines, on top of the $1.8 billion already allocated in July. The Department of Health and Human Services finally seems to be on track, or ahead of, its revised swine flu vaccinations timeline, with shots potentially available in the first week of October. There had been several earlier delays.
Despite the progress, a vaccine shortage is still expected. Of the 195 million doses ordered, only about 45 million will be available to begin a planned mass vaccination within the next few months. With only a quarter of the ordered doses available in the near future, it doesn't seem there will be enough for the 159 million people in recommended groups to receive the vaccine because of various vulnerabilities.
Among the priority groups are:
- pregnant women,
- people who live with or care for children younger than 6 months of age,
- health care and emergency medical services personnel with direct patient contact,
- children 6 months through 4 years of age, and
- children 5 through 18 years of age who have chronic medical conditions.
The appearance of the flu earlier this year has given vaccine manufacturers the time to prepare the vaccine and test it ahead of time. There are now five companies registered to manufacture the vaccine. All have received large orders from the U.S., with production and testing well under way. Sanofi Pasteur of Sanofi Aventis (SNY) landed a $252-million order, Novartis (NVS) got $978 million, GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) received $250 million, MedImmune of AstraZeneca (AZN) bagged $151 million and CSL Therapeutics brought in $180 million.
Vaccine makers delivered some good news last week when clinical trials showed that one dose of the new H1N1 swine flu vaccine is enough to protects adults. CSL's three-week trials in Australia -- and similar studies in the U.S. -- showed adults who received only a single dose were protected within 8 to 10 days. The availability of the vaccine earlier and its effectiveness could save lives of high-risk groups, experts said.
But vaccines alone won't do enough to stem the spread of the disease. The CDC recommends five main steps the people can take to help prevent the spread of the flu and to protect themselves: Cough into your hand or sleeve, wash your hands regularly, avoid hand contact with your face, and avoid contact with sick people. Finally, the CDC recommends staying at home if you experience symptoms, which are similar to regular flu symptoms, often accompanied by diarrhea and vomiting.
For now, at least, it certainly doesn't seem like swine flu will prove to be as ferocious as previous pandemics. Let's hope Survivors, I am Legend and The Stand remain works of fiction. But if you're hedging your bets, there's always Flu.gov and the "Outbreaks Near Me" iPhone App to keep you on top of any developments.
[Update: On Friday, the WHO said that the annual production of swine flu vaccines is expected to fall well short of the 4.9 billion doses that it had earlier forecast. However, since one dose now seems enough, supply fears have eased.]
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Reader Comments (Page 1 of 2)
9-18-2009 @ 7:48AM
timothy said...
Second wave ????? I dont know anybody who was involved in the first wave ???
Reply
9-18-2009 @ 9:48AM
Paul said...
You hit the nail right on the head Tim!
9-18-2009 @ 7:56AM
Tom said...
Yeah, sure it is. Everything else the prez without a birth cert. is doing will help too. LOL.
Reply
9-18-2009 @ 1:01PM
Carol said...
He does have a birth certificate. I saw it on TV. He was born in Hawaii. Get your facts straight.
9-18-2009 @ 8:32AM
Joyce said...
There was no 1st wave. . . I wouldn't take those vaccines if you paid me. . . . I can't believe they want to give this untested vaccine to children. . . . . This is just a lot of hype to make the drug companies richer. . . . .fear-mongers. . . . and AOL is going along with the program. . .
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9-18-2009 @ 11:46AM
Gordon said...
Will I get vaccinated for swine flu? Yeah, when pigs fly.
9-18-2009 @ 9:49AM
Paul said...
This swine flu thing has to be the biggest scam in history. People get the flu in the winter because they're not getting enough sun like the summer and their vitamin D levels are low which drops their immunity. I have been taking 2500 MG of vitamin C, 2000 IU vitamin D3, and an immune booster called Epicor and I haven't been sick once during the two years I've been doing this which is rare for me. I've been in hospitals, sneezed on, coughed on, been on a plane a dozen times, to foreign countries including Mexico, etc. Never sick once. Arm yourselves people with Vitamin C & D3 and let your body do the rest. Based on all the research I've done, you wouldn't get me NEAR the vaccine.
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9-18-2009 @ 10:06AM
athensbetty said...
this is crazy.This is 2009,we have been to the moon,now tell me that in the usa we have this swine flu that can't be controlled.The leopards were put in a colony by them selves away from every body.Does the medical world not have enough sense enough to do things to keep this from becoming wide spread.This is 2009.Just close everything and send peolpe home until it is all over.Get real.
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9-18-2009 @ 10:14AM
Thinking for myself said...
Just Stop This Now - The only reason this is news for is to sell you on drugs and keeping the income flow to the American Medical Industrial Complex. -
Can you not see that, the flu is natures way of culling the heard - the strong stay the weak do not.
This is also being used to get you to try for Goverment Health Care that will let you down more than the Flu
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9-18-2009 @ 11:06AM
Joyce said...
Well, you got part right. . . Who do you think is pushing the swine flu, the health care corps.. . .
WE DO NEED GOVERNMENT HEALTHCARE!!!!!
What we don't need is Health Care Corporations that try not to pay when you get sick. . . . .
Don't get it twisted
9-18-2009 @ 10:27AM
ams said...
we don't have to worry , only republicans can get SWINE flu
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9-18-2009 @ 12:45PM
Joyce said...
And let them get the vaccines. . . . .
9-18-2009 @ 10:35AM
jeff said...
In the United States during roughly the same period (up to August 30), there have been 9,079 hospitalizations and 593 deaths!!!! Do the math this means 6.5% of those who wer hospitalized died this is double the normal rate!! This is a HUGE COVERUP by the government to stop panic! If it infects half the population 150 million and 6% die then almost 9 million people will DIE!! They are comparing a pandemic that happened in this article and all deaths versus this FLU which still has not really hit ... just wait until this winter then see the real figures!! Also more than half those who got the NEW MEXICAN SWINE FLU also got Tamiflu but supplies will not last if 150 million people are sick!! They should have closed the Mexican borders and quarentined those who were sick to protect our country but then that would be politically incorrect? What crap US safety should always come first!! Right now they should be passing laws which require all sick students and employees to be sent home and told not to return without a doctors excuse to slow the spread of this FLU but instead they often pay those who are sick for unused sick days and so everyone comes in sick and it spreads fast and schools give special attendance awards which glorifies comng to school sick!! Pass laws now to protect us from ILLEGALS coming here with diseases by putting troops on the Mexican border and pass laws to keep sick people at home and not at work or school!!
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9-18-2009 @ 11:06AM
Paul said...
This swine flu is weak. Not even 600 died in the first wave in the US and most of them had other health issues. I am about as scared of this as I was about West Nile Virus. Remember that. They kept saying it would Mutate and Kill Millions It has not happened. They keep pointing out these things happened in the past. Yes a past when we did not have hospitals everywhere and little medicine to fight them. This is a sick way to get everyone to run out and buy medicine that Most will never need.
In the past 10 years they have come up with how many supposed viruses that will Kill us. West Nile Bird Flu and the list goes on. Don't buy the hype
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9-18-2009 @ 12:07PM
chicmic said...
"leopards" ?
Unbelievable.
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9-18-2009 @ 12:59PM
Russ Doncouse said...
The only scam I've heard about is in Argentina where I have family. There they are purposely keeping the number of reported cases low to keep people from panicing. It's winter down there and they closed the public schools, but keep the stores open to keep the money flowing. People wear masks everywhere like in China. Remember, even the President of Columbia got the Swine flue on the last conference in Argentina. We have nieces and nephews who got it in Argentina and they were not counted. This is no joke. If you have children, keep their immune systems strong this winter and watch yourselves. My brother and I got the Hong Kong flue in 1968 in Detroit as young kids and I'll never forget that one! My great-great grandparents died in the last great flue pandemic that killed millions, sending my great grandfather and his siblings to an orphanage. Not a joke nor a government conspiracy in our family.
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9-18-2009 @ 1:23PM
Jenny Baldwin said...
There are so many of you out there, that take Life for Granted. You people think this swine flu isnt real. Read the book of the Great Influenza of 1918. called the Spanish flu. It killed more people than the Great war-World war 1. Between 20 -40 million people died. Theres alot of you Americans out there that have had it so good. Having food,clothes,money,fancy cars,nice homes,cell phones,I-pods. You dont think a pandemic or food stortage will affect you. Think again my friend. In the Bible in the book of Revelation 6:8 They were given authority over one-fourth of the earth,to kill with the sword,famine and disease and wild animals. Jesus also says there will be no food to eat.Aloaf of wheat bread or three loaves of barley for a days pay. Rev 6:6
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9-18-2009 @ 1:24PM
JK said...
Big player in H1N1 vaccine is CVM...look them up. Hey if you cant beat em....might as well join em and make some money.
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9-18-2009 @ 2:10PM
francas said...
I'm not disagreeing with any 1 about the bullshit of the 1st wave and the coming wave of the so called swine flu , but as far as I understand there have been stop gap measures put into place by the past bush administration that have to be followed out . Yep , in Ma. they are trying to pass a law that You will be fined as much as $1000.00 per day with the possibility of loosing Your home and being placed in a camp like the Germans did to others if You don't comply . This is for real , please be aware of it .
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9-18-2009 @ 2:41PM
S. said...
I don't know why the cdc and the gov't won't use their brains. They need to close the schools! They said it themselves that schools are the biggest breeding ground for germs and for diseases to be spread. Not closing the schools is stupid. It is just spreading like wildfire and our gov't and the cdc could care less. Their have already been 3 cases in my daughter's school and more are being sent home everyday. Keeping the schools open is not helping the situation. Parents are gonna send their kids to school regardless if they are sick, they don't give any thought for anybody elses kids. I have a three month old and a two year old so I am debating on whether or not to pull my daughters out of school so they won't bring it home. The cdc needs to get their crap together and start trying to contain this instead of having their heads up their butts thinking that closing schools won't help when they know good and damn well it help a little!!
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