Retail sales, manufacturing data signal recovery
Filed under: Economy
Notch two more favorable data points for the nation's economy: Retail sales posted the largest monthly gain in three years and a key regional manufacturing index rose to its highest level since the recession started. True, we'll have to place a qualifier on retail sales -- it's generally accepted that the government's "cash for clunkers" program simply encouraged people who would have bought a car next year to do so this year instead. But the New York Fed's manufacturing survey continues to show a factory sector that's starting to revive, a development that could help pull the U.S. economy out its pronounced recession.
Retail sales rose a seasonally-adjusted 2.7 percent in August, the Commerce Department announced Tuesday, bolstered by the "clunkers" program. Auto sales surged 10.6 percent in August.
Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News had expected August retail sales to increase 2 percent. Sales fell 0.2 percent in July.
Excluding autos, August retail sales rose just 1.1 percent, an indication of the substantial impact of the clunkers program. Still, the gain outpaced the 0.4 percent August core decline forecast by Bloomberg News.
Even so, retail sales are down 5.3 percent on a year-over-year basis, reflecting the sustained pull back by consumers during the recession.
Meanwhile, manufacturing in the New York area continued to show improvement in September -- expanding at its fast pace in about 2 years.
The Empire State Manufacturing Index rose to 18.88 in September, from 12.1 in August, the New York Federal Reserve announced Tuesday. The index was at a negative 0.55 in July. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News had expected the index to rise to 14.0 in September.
Sentiment among manufacturers continued to improve in September, according to the New York Fed. Forty percent of those surveyed said business conditions had improved, while 20 percent said they had worsened. Also, the six-month outlook index rose to 52.3, its highest level since 2004.
Most manufacturers forecast that prices would probably stay near current levels over the next year, the survey found. But any change would likely be toward higher prices, they said.
Economists monitor the Empire State index because it typically provides a early-read on larger manufacturing surveys released later, such as the Institute for Supply Management's manufacturing survey.
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Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
9-15-2009 @ 2:22PM
hemipwr54 said...
Just a artificial indicator , no one is buying , we the American people are tapped out , we are not the UAW workers with full pay benefits when laid off .
Americans know that in order to get this bozo out of office they need to spend less and will , but we will vote those responsible out come 2010 .
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9-15-2009 @ 2:46PM
pr said...
right get obama,pelosi and the rest of these incompetant farleft cool aid drinkers out of office , they are damaging our country,and they need to go away fast using any means
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9-15-2009 @ 5:36PM
SEAN said...
I know this will make you HURL!! I live here in Northern California, and today the latest polls just came out..PELOSI has a 49% approval, BOXER and FEINSTEIN are at 54%.
This state has gone insane, we will never be able to get rid of them until they kick! No One has the money to go up against the corrupt politicians here...
9-15-2009 @ 5:34PM
DAVO said...
I HAD A NEIGHBOR WHO SOLD HIS STUFF EVERY MONTH TO PAY HIS MORTGAGE , CAR PAYMENT ETC. AFTER A YEAR HE LOST THE HOUSE AND THE CAR . I WENT OVER TO HIS APARTMENT HE HAS NO FURNITURE LEFT JUST A COUPLE OF GARDEN CHAIRS. SHORT TERM FIXES DON'T WORK .
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9-15-2009 @ 5:35PM
Big Dude said...
Wow thats pretty cool, cash for clunkers. People buy cars and sales go up ,makes the goverment look good "but" they don't pay the retail car owners there money for the clunkers and there left holding a note from the goverment that they didn't meet the standards for the money. Don't ask what the standards are because the goverment won't tell you. Now that's smart.
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9-15-2009 @ 6:16PM
Bob said...
Oh Yes ., What we really need is 4 more years of Bush like politics...lol.
You people are killin me!!. Always bashing the unions. If it wasn't for them you would not have enjoyed your labor day picnics.
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9-15-2009 @ 7:09PM
Road House said...
Blockbuster to Close Up to 960 Stores
9-15-2009 @ 6:31PM
B said...
All you frickin' Repubicans need to take your hatred and racism to another damn country that doesn't mind listening to a bunch TEA BAGGIN WHINERS! It doesn't matter what sort of hopeful or positive signs we get from the economy...you always have some negative spin on it. I've never seen such a bunch of un-american idiots in all my life!
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9-15-2009 @ 6:32PM
DUKE said...
WAIT UNTIL THE FIRST OF THE YEAR WHEN MILLONS OF SENIORS HAVE LESS TO SPEND WITH THEIR SOCIAL SECURITY BEING CUT. IT HAS TO HAVE SOME IMPACT ON RETAIL. DO YOU THINK THE PRESIDENT AND CONGRESS WILL TAKE A PAY CUT, OR IS IT JUST THE WORTHLESS OLDER AMERICANS. TAKE AWAY SOME SOCIAL SECURITY AND HEALTH BENEFITS, THEY'RE OLD WHAT CAN THEY DO?
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