Initial jobless claims drop, but continuing claims rise
Filed under: Economy
More modest progress for the U.S. labor market: initial jobless claims unexpectedly dropped 52,000 to 565,000, but continuing claims rose 159,000 to 6.88 million, the U.S. Labor Department announced Thursday. It was the lowest initial jobless claims total since January. However, the Labor Department cautioned that last week's initial jobless total was likely skewed lower, due to the short week which included the July 4 Independence Day holiday.
Economists view the four-week average as a better indicator of unemployment conditions, as it smooths out anomalies for strikes, holidays, or other idiosyncratic events.
Putting the data in perspective
Michael Gregory, a senior economist for BMO Capital Markets in Toronto, underscored to investors that both jobless claim declines and job loss declines are not tantamount to job growth.
"Job losses lessening is a sign that the worst is over, but it doesn't mean the labor market will get better in a hurry," Gregory told Bloomberg News Thursday. "It's going to keep consumer spending depressed. People will be reinstating the term 'jobless recovery.'"
However, provided initial jobless claims keep declining in the weeks ahead, that would nevertheless represent the best news for the U.S economy since the recession started. True, as Gregory noted, it would not signal net job growth, but jobless claims declines point to a day when aggregate demand starts to rise -- a commercial condition the nation hasn't experienced in more than a year.
Also in the Labor Department's report, 21 states and territories reported an increase in new claims for the week ended June 27, while 32 reported a decrease. The data on states and territories are reported with a one-week lag.
Economic Analysis: A sharp decline in jobless claims: but again, one has to qualify that conclusion, due to the short week, which typically reduces jobless claims. Further, the continuing claims total remains at deeply problematic levels: near 7 million. Investors should take away from the new report that jobless claims have peaked, but the nation still hasn't identified or created engines of growth that will lead to the millions of new jobs that will be necessary to return to rising earnings, rising incomes, and expanding prosperity. Further, even assuming that there will eventually be a restructured U.S. economy that depends less on consumer spending, sustainable GDP growth can not occur without job growth -- which underscores the vitalness of the latter.



























Reader Comments (Page 1 of 6)
7-09-2009 @ 10:57AM
DrDoom said...
The economy won't recover until oil-price is returned back down to $28 bbl where it belongs... Until then, the consumer and the world will continue to not have any confidence to travel and spend...
Excessively over-priced oil is the reason people worldwide aren't traveling, and when people aren't traveling, they too aren't spending... And top that, it was overpriced oil that got us into this ****-hole economy at the first place.
OPEC exports their oil at $5 to $6 per barrel to the U.S. and Wall Street and all these Crude trading posts all over the world manipulates it into the market at over $60... Now that's where everyone should shine their spotlights directly to!!! Cause they're the ROBBERS and CRIMINALS!!!
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7-09-2009 @ 11:15AM
Bigbizman said...
And all the while prices were going up and creating the biggest transfer of wealth, from oil consuming countries to terrorist supporting oil producers, Bush was kissng them and holding their hands.
7-09-2009 @ 1:50PM
jordan said...
I agree 100%
7-10-2009 @ 12:41AM
Redman said...
You're dreaming if you think low oil prices will fix this economy. There is NO work. We produce nothing.
7-10-2009 @ 5:41AM
Master Shake said...
Redman, you are absolutely correct! The United States is screwed at this point. Your problems go back four administrations to Reagan. NOTHING is going to fix those problems at this point. The manufacturing industry has left, and small business can't get a leg up any more. Your cost of living is insane, and most jobs are paying the same wages they were paying 30 years ago. Point this out to most Americans, and their knee-jerk reaction is "if you don't like it, then leave" - instead of dealing with the actual problems and facing the truth. Until you first admit you have screwed up and identify the problems that Reagan started, you have NO hope of fixing anything.
7-09-2009 @ 1:22PM
SHUTUPDEMLIARS said...
DON'T WORRY HAVE A BURGER AND A COKE OBAMA IS GOD HE CAN FIT IT . RIGHT DEMS HE CAN EAT A BURGER AND DRINK A COKE WE KNOW THAT FOR SURE.
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7-10-2009 @ 4:57PM
larry said...
what would you expect out of a economic idiot who thinks he is hilter---i am talking about obama and his policies---
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7-09-2009 @ 11:31AM
pete said...
The best thing that could be done for the US economy is to open off shore drilling. The Chinese made a deal to drill in Cuban waters - 90 miles off the US coast. BUT - the US EPA bans US companies from drilling within 200 miles off the coast. So it's ok for China to drill in our water, but not us. WTF is up with OUR government??????
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7-10-2009 @ 12:27PM
Bill said...
Whats comical is that a lot of folks, I guess not knowing the facts blame crude oil prices on Bush. But....Pelosi and the Dems have been blocking offshore drilling for gas and oil here in the US for 21/2 yrs. They have been in charge in Congress not Bush? Peolosi and here group have blocked any bill that comes up on off shore drilling. Lets focus the Blame (if we must) where it belongs , on Pelosi. 77% of americans want off shore exploration here in the US, so we can control the costs. Its to easy to blame Bush and his group...its a Dem cop-out and will continue as Obama bankrupts this country. What a scum she is and shes from California...must I say anymore?
7-09-2009 @ 11:30AM
dan said...
Job losses are decreasing because there are less jobs to lose. This administration promised to SAVE or create 4 million jobs, and if you work for the government your job is safe and soon government employment will reach 4 million. State and city employees however will be screwed as deficits cause state government to cut employment and services but not wages for those left employed
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7-09-2009 @ 9:58PM
Buzz said...
People have used up all there unemployment benefits. That's why it appears that unemployment or joblessness seems to be on the way down.
7-09-2009 @ 11:37AM
athensbetty said...
thanks nafta and all who supported this program.We lost jobs.Greed took over and millions of dollars were stolen by greeded people.so now this is America
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7-09-2009 @ 11:37AM
Rick said...
America the beautiful is BROKE, but we do carry a big stick.
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7-09-2009 @ 12:01PM
ls4 said...
The economy is like buying a house in forclosure.. When you first it, youre excited, you made an inspection, you know it has a leaky roof.. 3 months after you move in..you realize a patch isnt going to work you need to replace the whoe thing..So you spend the money now knowing in the long run ut has its benefits,, Obama came into a mess with unseen problems and is making the best of it.. Cost more..yes but will it provide for a better tomorrow I think so..imagine the amount of people who would be out of work if it wasnt for the stimulus package
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7-09-2009 @ 12:36PM
art said...
Spending your way out of a recession is stupid, it never worked in the past and it will not work now. The only thing that worked in the last 30 years was to cut taxes for individuals, the little guy's. This gives them more money to spend which creates jobs.
We are losing our manufacturing base at a rate of 3% a year which makes up most of the middle class the drives the economy. Stop exporting the jobs, make it easier for small business to stay in business not tax them to a point of no return. There are more people working for the federal government then there are in manufacturing sector and thats just wrong.
7-09-2009 @ 12:44PM
Chuck said...
Sugar coat it all you want, this is now Obama's economy. He's not kept a single promise. Cap and Trade, new taxes on the middle class and homes still foreclosing at record rates. No Jobs growth, the Trillion dollar stimulus passed under Obama is going to the left wing special interests like ACORN, the greenies and Unions. Bills are being passed in the dead of night with no 5 day review and we're running up a deficit we'll never be able to recover from. Thousand of earmarks totalling 5 Trillion dollars are being attached to bills and passed. Obama promised to get rid of special interest in Gov't he also promised that "NO" lobbyists would be a part of his Administration. No promises kept, no hope, and no we won't in 2012.
7-09-2009 @ 11:11PM
billy said...
What world do YOU live in???????
7-09-2009 @ 12:26PM
richard said...
We will see more job losses as the taxes that the Democratic led Congress is planning to impose upon the wealthiest earners in the nation. With less discretionary spending money, there will be less investments which provide research and expansion of companies in the future. It will have a long lasting impact upon the already sagging economy. Be careful what you wish for, it might come true in your worst nightmare.
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7-09-2009 @ 6:59PM
John said...
We're being set up for a new world order. The Gov. wants to distress this nation so they can declare martial law. That will give them control over everything. You can bet the U.N. is involved in this also. It seems that the Pope also wants a world order, "there is urgent need of a true world political authority". Obama seems to be way to relaxed. He sure doesn't seem to to concerned about us. All these trips to these world leaders, who knows what else they're talking about.Decreasing the population also comes with a NWO. Take a look at these videos.
http://New-World-Order.itrustgodonly.com -
http://death-camps.itrustgodonly.com/The-Obama-Deception/
7-09-2009 @ 12:33PM
Mike said...
How do the jobless people that dont get unemployment, or unemployment has run out get counted, in unemployement figures, or do they, so skip the BS and get the real stats, but it will be hard people living on the street dont have address or phone numbers
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