Roubini sees a 'significant market correction' ahead
Filed under: Economy
Leave it to Dr. Doom, NYU economics professor Nouriel Roubini, to talk about an upcoming correction on a day the markets drop over two percent. Today, he added his voice to those predicting a double-dip, W-shaped recession. Roubini, who used to be nearly alone when he made his pessimistic calls, is now part of a growing crowd.Roubini, speaking on CNBC's "Squawk Box Europe," said that with oil possibly climbing toward $100 a barrel towards the end of this year, long-term interest rates rising, big budget deficits and unemployment likely reaching 11 percent in the US and around 10 percent in Europe, we could see another dip in economic activity.
And, of course, the bad economy would affect company earnings. While the markets has priced in a fast V-shaped recovery, Roubini sees poor earnings prospects at companies and expects many companies to surprises on the downside. With such poor prospects, he believes "there's going to be a significant market correction for equities, for commodities and even for credit."
What I find quite interesting in this recession is that unemployment is sometimes being treated as a leading, not a lagging indicator, as is usually the case. Roubini, too, said "recovery signs should come from unemployment," among the other usual suspects such as housing, industrial production, sales and consumption data.
Just as General Electric Co. (GE) Vice Chairman John Rice told Bloomberg on Friday that he isn't seeing any green shoots such as increase in orders, Roubini also sees "more yellow weeds than green shoots." GE is often considered a proxy for the economy as the large conglomerate reaches many areas of the economy.
But Roubini's doom and gloom view doesn't stop with a possible double-dip. Even when the economy recovers, he says, it will be very weak because of the debt overhang in so many sectors, as well as the large budget deficits governments have taken on to stimulate their economies.
And joining others in the U.S. and around the world, Roubini warned about the dangers of protectionism.
It's interestingto note that while Roubini warns of double-dip recession and a market correction, multi-billionaire financier George Soros says the worst of the global economic crisis is over.



























Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
6-22-2009 @ 2:56PM
dominic yanni said...
i find this economists views contradictory. how can he possibly see oil barrel prices going to 100 dollars per barrel with all the doom and gloom he is predicting? it seems as if the price of oil has recently been linked with the equity market. as the stock market went down so did oil. as the stock market has risen so did oil. so if economic downturn further is on the horizon, isnt it reasonable to assume that oil will drop as it did before? and with oil dropping i honestly believe that would "fuel" some form of recovery because it seems that when oil goes down the economy rebounds and vice versa.
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6-23-2009 @ 4:40AM
joseph trotta said...
the way oil goes up that high is simple. With the value of the dollar being destroyed by all this spending the cost of oil will rise. so will everything else it is simple economics that people were saying and the media refused to cover till now.
6-22-2009 @ 3:19PM
piporro said...
When oil got up to almost 150 a barrel the economy tanked. When oil got down to 35 the economy stared a weak recovery.Now that oil is up to 70 guess what, the economy is going to suffer. Look back thru historyand you will see the correlation between big increases in the price of oil and economic down turns. That's all.
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6-22-2009 @ 3:27PM
jack said...
GREENSPAM was a FRAUD TOO ... enough said.
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6-22-2009 @ 3:40PM
Ronald said...
The guy (Rubini) is simple calling it like he sees it. I know all about a room full of economists all have different opinions. But I see this one as having a clearer sight than the irrational crowd at this moment of time...
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6-22-2009 @ 3:46PM
Iridium said...
Soros is just trying to talk the finaincials up to build up currencies he will sell short for huge profit later on. To create an even bigger fortune he will kill the dollar like he killed the Pound.
The biggest issue affecting the health of the economy is that the price of oil has been linked with the equity markets. It has been done on purpose to transfer vast ammounts of money into the hands of a very few well placed players. You can not have a recovery if an obstacle to the recovery gets larger every time you try to move it.
I said everything Roubini said many times over the past two years. It is very easy to see if your concern is for the common man and the health of the middle class. It is very hard to see if all you care about is Wall Street and which direction your portfolio is moving.
We created a gigantic business of talking about stock, trading stock, moving stock, and complaining about stock. Through all of this we destroyed the real economy. A stock certificate is worthless to the real economy. It doesn't build anything and it doesn't grow anything. It doesn't even teach anything of real worth. CEOs don't know how to run a business, they only know how to manage stock.
The worth of a stockbroker to society is really nill. That stockbroker can't build a building or plant a crop. He can't fix a toilet or cut down a diseased tree. As we moved our society away from actually making real goods, a productive society, to a consumption society of goods made elsewhere we cut the only path to creation of wealth as a path through the trading of stock or other pieces of worthless paper. Only the belief that the papaer is worth something keeps our economy alive.
The fall of the stock market was caused by reality peeking through the cloud of bullshit made up by the real Big Three; The Government, The Banks, and The Media. The recent rally was the cloud trying to cover up the sun. As long as people don't look up nobody will notice the stormclouds forming.
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6-22-2009 @ 4:09PM
RNF123 said...
Every economist is predicting a W shaped recovery and a market correction. Since the stock market is up over 2000 points from the March low, a correction is in order but it may be short and swift. The economy may or may not form a W shaped bottom or it may be a slow V shaped recovery. Either way, none are predicting a strong market over the next six months and all hope to have a second chance at jumping into the stock market after it has already made a big move. The scenario that few are predicting is a strong market, due for a correction, that goes much higher irrespective of the shape of the economic recovery. There are no economic laws that require the stock maket to imitate the economic recovery.
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6-22-2009 @ 4:14PM
oilfreecars said...
Way past time to stop buying foreign oil. We need cars that are biofuel/electric hybrids with solar panels.
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6-22-2009 @ 7:30PM
Steve said...
Good luck with that. When they start making practical vehicles in that fashion, I'm OK with that. But I'll be damned if I'm going to drive one of those goofy little crackerboxes. What we REALLY need is an alternate fuel our existing vehicles can burn.
6-22-2009 @ 4:16PM
nick said...
I love to see these gals on Power Lunch and the other shows try to bat those big eyes and tell you folks how much they know. The folks trying to make a living as these people BS the folks and they hit the bars in New York at night and laugh all the way to the bank, some day the folks will say forget the market. You put your money in 401K's and lose your ass while the folks who manage the money make out even if you lose your ass, this is America, look at Cramer, he talks BS everynight and takes home a fat check from the CEO of GE for putting out pure BS.
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6-22-2009 @ 4:29PM
bd said...
You cannnot say the guy is lying, he has a better record than the Fed.
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6-22-2009 @ 6:30PM
romy said...
i think this guy is full of it only thing is oil which will come down these oil guys will soon realise the right price of oil is arround 50 i know things r bad but this guy is called dr doom for a reason stock market got a quick v is because things got too cheap too fast u telling me i buy soda for 1.56 & citi is expensive at 3 same for bank of america share at 12 i get lunch for that i think its price what make the difrence things were bad yes they were but its only upward from now houses selling for 50-60k its alot cheaper then renting now he will says people r making less but he wont talk about cost of living going down guy world is not ending i think this good as long we dont repeat mistake u r getting ur $ worth now how can that not be a good sign its sale every where
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6-22-2009 @ 7:13PM
cramer said...
MARKET IS GOING TO CRASH...EVERYBODY PULL YOUR MONEY OUT BEFORE IT'S TOO LATE..
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6-30-2009 @ 6:43PM
lowell stacy said...
Mr. Roubini's view of a market downturn is supported by recent reports that many Americans are now in a saving vice a spending mode - and most of that savings isn't going back into a market they've lost confidence in. His dour predictions are further buttressed by the fact that lending institutions, while they have managed to stabilize their bad housing debt, still haven't come to grips with bad debt in commericial real estate and credit cards. With that debt looming over them, we see why these institution are leery about lending the money necessary to generate economic and market growth. When one can, as I did, see the value of one's mutual fund IRAs lose half their value in a relatively short time, how can that lost value be regarded as ever having existed? Why pump more air into the void?
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6-26-2009 @ 9:08PM
FRANK said...
THE REALITY IS, WE ARE GOING BROKE AS A NATION. ALL THIS SPENDING AND NOT VERY MUCH TO SHOW FOR IT. PRINTING ALL THAT MONEY AND NOW THE FED HAS TO FIND A WAY OF PULLING IT BACK! STOCK UP ON CAN GOODS, WATER AND GOLD. IT'S ALL OVER BUT THE CRYING. IF YOU CAN'T SEE IT HAPPENING, WELL THEN, IT WAS NICE KNOWING YOU.
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6-23-2009 @ 6:53AM
RON said...
iridium
i whole heartily agree. i've been saying the same thing for years. paper pushers contribute nothing to the economy.
we have forsaken manufacturing, which is really the only way to produce real wealth.
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6-23-2009 @ 8:35AM
R.G. said...
Iridium, you are spot on and I don't mean just shares of stock. The only reason green U.S. dollars work, even in the grocery store, is because the poor sap you hand your $20 bill to has faith that the NEXT sap HE/SHE hands it to will accept it on faith that the NEXT sap will accept it, and so on, and so on. Lose the faith, (trust?) and we're screwed. Why? That $20 is just a piece of linen, (NOT paper) and is backed by nothing. Think about that one awhile!
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6-23-2009 @ 8:50AM
FOXYLYNX said...
THAT'S NOT WHAT HE WAS SAYING A COUPLE OF WKS AGO. THEY CHANGE THEIR TUNE WITH THE RISE AND FALL OF THE STOCK MARKET. WHERE ARE THE JOBS THE STIMULUS WAS SUPPOSED TO CREATE? TRILLIONS IN DEBT AND FOR WHAT? HIGHER TAXES FOR ALL, EXCEPT FOR THE 50% THAT PAY VIRTUALLY ZERO INCOME TAXES- THIS IS NOT SUSTAINABLE ON THE BACKS OF THE OTHER 50%. THE LIBS ARE GOING TOO FAR DOWN THE ROAD OF SOCIALISM.
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6-23-2009 @ 8:56AM
Katt M said...
Employment/unemployment also needs to be given LEADING indicator consideration - not lagging. It's all the "poor saps" and their $20 bills do indeed drive the economy. As long as folks are worried they might not have a job tomorrow a real economic turnaround is impossible.
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