Mixed employment data: jobless claims rise, but continuing claims fall
Filed under: Economy
Another mixed bag regarding the most recent labor market data. While initial jobless claims rose by 3,000 to 608,000, continuing claims fell 148,000 to 6.69 million, the U.S. Labor Department announced Thursday. Meanwhile, the 4-week moving average decreased 7,000 to 622,250. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News had expected this week's initial jobless claims to total 610,000.
Further, it was the lowest continuing claims total since May 9. Falling continuing claims, which hit a record 6.82 million last week, could represent another 'green shoot,' if the metric moves steadily lower -- it would reflect a peak in long-term joblessness, which historically has been a sign that economic growth is ahead.
John Herrmann, chief economist with Herrmann Forecasting in New Jersey, is in the camp that argues the worst is over regarding job lay-offs.
"Companies will start pulling back on the pace of job cuts in coming months," Herrmann told Bloomberg News Thursday. "We've seen jobless claims peak."
Also, investors should not be alarmed by the weekly jobless claims rise. Economists view the 4-week average as a better indicator of unemployment conditions, as it smooths-out anomalies for strikes, holidays, or other idiosyncratic events.
Further, investors, as well as business executives, should keep the lower trend in continuing claims in perspective as it is not tantamount to job growth, and an enormous amount of work remains ahead for the U.S. economy and for policy makers. The U.S. economy has to add about 200,000 jobs per month – a roughly net 100,000 job gain over the monthly gain needed to keep unemployment from rising – for the next five years to replace the 5.7 million jobs lost during the recession.
Economic Analysis: Again, not much to write home about regarding jobless claims and continuing claims, but we'll take it. The key concerns are whether jobless and continuing claims can keep falling, and investors should keep in mind that lay-offs could start to rise again, on any number of factors, if the U.S. economic recovery does not gain traction. However, if jobless claims have peaked and repeatedly fall week after week, that would be the best news for the U.S economy since the recession started.
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Reader Comments (Page 1 of 4)
6-18-2009 @ 10:42AM
tim said...
You fail to mention why jobless claims fell-are people going back to work in the form of job creation or are they giving up, staying unemployed but no longer receiving benefits so they don't show up in the ranks? It's the latter- get in touch with Main St. and find out what people are doing instead of propping up the Obama administration's claims and direction that things are improving-they have actually created layoffs in companies because of the solialist policies and are making things worse both in the short term (policies of government intrusion into private enterprise)and long term (huge debt with major implications , solicalization we don't want, and preventing innovation and creativity by interjecting government into the risk versus reward of capitalism which has been our strength). Now all boats are taking on water and many are sinking. But idealogy gets in the way of truth so this administration will do all the more and say that is the answer.
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6-18-2009 @ 1:24PM
Jesse said...
Very well stated!!!
6-19-2009 @ 8:54AM
SUSAN said...
I agree. And, what about the older people that gave up on unemployment and opted for early retirement?
6-18-2009 @ 10:52AM
steve said...
number dropped because so many people have used up their unemployment and no longer recieve it--!!!!
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6-18-2009 @ 11:37AM
Robert Eberhart said...
Also people which have accept part time jobs or people that have found full time jobs at a fraction of what they were making before they were layed off.
6-18-2009 @ 10:56PM
Colby said...
steve said...
number dropped because so many people have used up their unemployment and no longer recieve it--!!!!
My thoughts exactly
6-18-2009 @ 10:55AM
aleron0 said...
I agree with Steve...steve said...
number dropped because so many people have used up their unemployment and no longer recieve it--!!!! How many of you out their can't figure that out???
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6-18-2009 @ 11:02AM
Steve in DC said...
Stuff... We need to be making more stuff. And we apparently have no defined plans to increase production. We need to have a real reason for any creation of jobs... we cannot just decide to make jobs.
If you don't make a product that you can sell, you don't have any income. If you don't have any income, then you can't buy stuff from someone else, and can't pay for your electricity.
The bullpoo articles like this one tell us nothing about the reality of our trouble. ... this was written by a truly deluded individual.
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6-18-2009 @ 11:12AM
mark said...
it is amazing the forces of denial in the media and the obama administration. as several people on this site have already stated the reason the continuing numbers have fallen is that people have RUN OUT of benefits and can no longer collect. you are now seeing obama's approval number beginning to plummet because americans can now see that the emperor has no clothes.
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6-18-2009 @ 11:34AM
susan jones said...
The reason why is because we have ran out of umenployment I know I am one that has my plant shut down and there no jobs im a single woman and im 56 years old with no chance except well fare so where do they think it getting better ??????? quess I will be living in my car like the other ones are right ???????
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6-18-2009 @ 11:34AM
sam adams said...
It's nice to see that other people out there can read an article and realize it is full of misleading garbage!
To bad so many of our neighbors read crap like this and believe every word. They get all excited thinking that things will now get back to the way things use to be and decide to go out and buy that new boat or take that vacation...on credit of course!
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6-18-2009 @ 11:45AM
allseeing said...
NOTHING MORE THAN FUZZY OBAMA MATH..............
WAKE UP PEOPLE....................
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6-18-2009 @ 11:55AM
robert said...
King Hussein and his spending spree has not hit us yet. In the very near future as the spending of the rest of the stimulus bill hits us and bills need to be paid, the King will need to raise taxes and/or print more money, about 2 trillion needed. Inflation will hit the USA as never seen before, just look at other countries with run away inflation, and the present recession will become worse. King Hussein and the Democraps will be pushed for more revenue and the only source left, no not the rich, is a Value Added Tax on top of all our taxes. VAT will be an average tax of appox 8% on all purchases, higher on big items like cars. King Hussein's historic election will be followed by an huge loss in 2012, same as what Carter faced when he was throwed out of office by the voters in his humilating defeat in his re-election attempt.
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6-18-2009 @ 11:55AM
cmorse1052 said...
There was a day many moons ago when you could tell if a story was B.S. or if it made sense. If the story made sense the market went up, if it was B.S. the market went down. Now, with the gubment manipulation, speculators, day traders and hedge funds, you can't tell.
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6-18-2009 @ 12:19PM
Richard M Lefkowitz said...
Let's face it folks ..... when Obama gets done with us no one will have a thing left. Of course if you don't work you'll be just fine.
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6-18-2009 @ 12:19PM
Troy said...
The Labor Secretary had unpaid tax liens for about 10 years !
The Treasury Secretary cheated on his taxes.
How much can we trust ANY numbers released under these two officials.
Alas, it is difficult to believe they have now become accurate.
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6-18-2009 @ 12:45PM
JWoods said...
Like many of the other comments, the number is falling because people have run out of their initial unemployment benefits. Yes, there have been two extensions for unemployment benefits but if you are one of the group that ran out of benefits before the extensions were added, then you are NOT eligible for the extensions. So what is a nearly 60 year old man with a family and a mortgage supposed to do to pay bills and buy food for his family? And, at the same time, my wife and 26 year old daughter also were laid off from work and now my daughter has moved back home. Yet, for the politicians everything is all rosey because the initial claims keep failing! It is government BS as usual and it will continue to be the same until we get an independent outside source to look at the numbers instead of a group of government workers that are paid to make the numbers look "good" so that people with little education will think there is still hope for everyone and that things are turning around! Yeah, right!
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6-18-2009 @ 12:56PM
tommytortugam said...
Our nation is being looted. The economy can only continue to deteriorate. Our capacity to recover has been either exported or destroyed. The, the international banksters who own our government, intend to reduce our standard of living to that of the average mexican peasant. They are succeeding with their plan for a one world money system, military and government.
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6-19-2009 @ 8:09AM
Michael Grassi said...
This has been the plan for years. While they divide Americans against one another via the two party system, they have been busy,busy,busy. Busy building more prisons and Fema concentration camps. Busy taking away our constitutional rights, busy instilling fear with the created threat of terrorism. Guess what folks, we are the terrorists. When Americans finally wake up and realize what these evil creatures have truly done to our beautiful country we will revolt. But it is too late, they have anticipated this. All of these new prisons and 'international armies' (Blackwater) are just chomping at the bit ready to round up all of the new American terrorists. The financial crisis was well planned, designed to impoverish the American middle class. You all have been bagged, tagged and enslaved. So what are you going to do about it? Watch American Idol?
6-18-2009 @ 1:14PM
KP said...
Our Nevada paper reported this morning the State unemployment rate spiked an additional point to 11.3%. 20% of the homes are foreclosed and rising. One bright spot: it can't get any worse, I hope.
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