Economists expect recession to end in September
Filed under: Economy
Yesterday White House economic advisor Lawrence Summers expressed cautious optimism that the sense that the American economy is in free-fall would abate within the next few months. Now a survey of 53 economists by The Wall Street Journal (subscription required) shows that this group shares his opinion. Those surveyed generally expect the recession to end in September and begin the long slog back to recovery. Between now and then, however, the experts believe the GDP will continue to tumble, 5 percent in the first quarter, 1.8 percent in the second. Few of them see the unemployment rate, which usually trails recovery, improving before mid-summer of next year, although they expect the rate of new job loss to slow considerably to 2.6 million in the next year. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, from December of 2007 to March of this year, 5.1 million jobs have been lost, 3.3 million of those taking place since the beginning of November 2008.
The economists point to pent-up demand by companies that have depleted their inventories, as well as the longed-for loosening of credit as a result of the TARP money, as major contributors to the improved outlook. Other stimulus expenditures are also expected to help bolster the economy. Almost three-quarters of the respondents are sanguine about the Treasury's plan to buy up toxic assets.
The 53 generally approved of the Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke's work, grading him at 76 percent, while the President and Treasury Secretary Geithner were each given C's.
Flies in the ointment that the economists foresaw included the credit market's reluctance to loosen up further, consumer unwillingness to resume shopping, and the possibility that one or more large financial institutions may yet implode.
Other studies suggest that this outlook -- if not optimistic, at least less pessimistic -- is shared widely. The Consumer Confidence Survey in March checked a steady downward trend, actually increasing from 27.3 to 28.9. The Conference Board's Measure of CEO Confidence was also up in the first quarter from its all-time low. Although still pessimistic, 17 percent of CEOs expect the economy to improve by the end of the third quarter vs. 11 percent last quarter.
Perhaps these cracks in the veneer of gloom hovering over the economy will serve as the first step toward reviving public confidence. The hint of spring in the air makes it easier to embrace optimism, but we still seem to be a long, hot summer away from the tipping point.



























Reader Comments (Page 1 of 11)
4-10-2009 @ 11:34AM
Rich CT said...
What a joke!!! These idiots know nothing! they make the stuff up when it benefits them! They haven't been right on one thing with this economy or recession. Stop printing their ridiculous predictions!
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4-10-2009 @ 10:25AM
Chuck said...
Recession ending in September? Maybe. But wait, there's more. Banks are holding foreclosed properties. Why? There are 600,000 foreclosed properties being held by banks to keep the Real Estate market from completely collapsing. These banks are still at it. They're manipulating the market to make a profit. I'd like to see a report on how many loans are being modified by banks to help folks who've either lost jobs or income to stay in their homes. Now I know there are those out there who think helping folks who've lost their Jobs to keep their homes is a bad thing, but I'd have to say that I'd rather my tax dollars went to help my neighbor instead of going to Millionaires in the form of bonuses.
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4-10-2009 @ 11:11AM
disenfranchised said...
You're right about the lenders. They won't modify unless you're 60 days or more behind. They feel as long as you're current, they're receiving the interest, and won't do anything until you fall behind. The attitude seems to be "we don't care what this bumbling administration wants, they don't know their a** from a hole in the ground." They may be right about that. This recession won't end until home prices bottom out. This administration cares about jobs, not homeowners. Too bad. It's the homeowners who pay for everything in this country. Wait 'til the bill comes due.
4-10-2009 @ 12:04PM
Bob Podbevsek said...
Maybe they should cut our tax rate and then you can give your money to anyone you want to!
4-10-2009 @ 2:40PM
tamznutude said...
I completely agree with you. But the way i'm reading the article.. the economy may get better..lol...but things won't really start to recover by mid-end of next year. I certainly hope not since I was laid off in this past Feb...hhmm I think I will go and watch Robin Hood..I mean CNN..instead of taking from the rich and giving to the poor..its the complete opposite...so it would "Hood Robin"...heck just thinking, don't have anything else to doo...
4-10-2009 @ 3:07PM
loretta said...
Chuck, you are so right !!!! I would like to hear from the people directly. Show me the people who have been helped and have been able to save their home and have been able to restructure their debt in order to survive this catastrophy that was caused by men who could not care less about the havoc that they caused and the lives that they destroyed. Until we get first hand, verified accounts by the banking institutions, we will still be the American lambs led to slaughter by corporate greed.
4-10-2009 @ 3:23PM
Teri said...
IMO- Banks are holding onto foreclosed home because they see no reason to let these go at the maximum loss now that they have been given TARP money.. There is no incentive to shed all toxic assets from their books just yet...they are wanting to cash in for as much profit as they can when the market turns around.
4-10-2009 @ 4:40PM
the c2u said...
"It's the homeowners who pay for everything in this country. Wait 'til the bill comes due." .... What homeowner? Skip a few mortgage payments and see who is the homeowner.
4-10-2009 @ 6:25PM
yousername said...
I totally agree. I think the banks are also hoarding cash instead of loaning in anticipation of a future interest rate increase. It's an economics 101 fact that when more money is put into circulation eventually interest rates have to be increased otherwise inflation will spin out of control. Every dollar that is printed and pumped into the system makes the value of a dollar worth less. When it takes $5 to buy a loaf a bread the only way to offset it is to make borrowing money less appealing by raising interest rates and thus decreasing the amount of money in circulation. Banks don't want to loan their money at 6% when they know the inevitable threat of inflation will force the treasury to have to, at the very least, double that rate as the economy begins to recover. Its easy to print more money and dump it into the pot but there is only one way to reel it back in. Loans banks made at 6% when the present rate has jumped to 10% or higher is a profit killer. But so is a loaf of bread that costs 6 bucks. A fast recovery can be more devasting to an economy than a rapidly slowing one. It's a huge quadmire that the fed does not want to address to avoid raining on the recovery parade.
4-10-2009 @ 9:50PM
Dave said...
Banks are still ripping us off and very few of the ones who pulled the original scam are lending or modifying loans. People who lost jobs are the direct result of this scam and now not only do we have to deal with major unemployment but the very banks who caused this are getting tax dollars from the people they hurt the most. Also the stress test results will be hidden from us because the great Bernak thinks we are not smart enough to understand them. We are living in a dictatorship where a bankers says what will be acceptable veiwing by the American taxpayers. Insults on top of theft. This country needs major changes back to a simpler time and smaller government with no federal reserve or IRS.
4-12-2009 @ 8:53AM
tom said...
Amen to that brother!!
4-12-2009 @ 10:39AM
Sarah said...
Why should I feel sorry for people who tried to buy more than they could realistically afford? They aren't the only "victims". The rest of us had to pay for their stupidity LITERALLY! All taxpayers had to bail out the stupid and greedy people who started this mess. Why aren't the crooked house appraisers being arrested left and right? The overinflated house estimate value was something that screwed everybody. Get the people who really made money on the house flipping scheme. Let's not forget the scum on Wall Street who just keep betting on their hedge funds.
I can't feel that sorry for someone who actually signed their name onto an ARM or a interest only loan with a balloon payment at the end they knew they couldn't afford. If that's all you qualified for then you shouldn't try to buy a home. It's that simple. People need to stop living beyond their means.
4-12-2009 @ 12:58PM
Sheila Madison said...
If you want to help the economy from falling: Bring our auto jobs back that went away because of taxes they had to pay in Michigan. And for cheaper pay.
And maybe we will buy cars again. And stop pumping money into GM for the top people to have a cushy life. Let GM go bankrupt and start over like most of us has had to do to survive.
Most of us have lost everything and were still going. Not very well but it is a new start and were surviving, So will they. We need jobs to get the economy going. Or move out of the state before our unemployment is gone.
4-10-2009 @ 10:35AM
andrew Russell said...
I will belive it when i see it ,LIKE THATS GOING TO HAPPEN!.
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4-10-2009 @ 10:46AM
hemipwr54 said...
We the consumer will let the Rich and Wasteful know when we are ready to buy again , not them us !
Americans , lets show the Rich and Wasteful we control America , even if they say buy we don't have to .
LETS KEEP NOT BUYING , IF WE CONTINUE TO NOT BUY THEY WILL HAVE TO LOWER PRICES ACROSS THE BOARD .
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4-10-2009 @ 3:08PM
jester22151 said...
You are an idiot. Businesses losing money to sell you products does not help the economy. If they make less money, they buy less product. The company that produces the product lays off people. The people who got laid off and can't find a job, go on welfare. All because of a**holes like you my taxes go up.
4-10-2009 @ 10:58AM
Iridium said...
The past 30 days have been totally insane. You have groups of stocks that have seen over 70% gain in a couple weeks. There is no reason why a stock should ever go up like that just because someone says things might be looking better.
You are getting years of growth condensed into a couple weeks. The people behind it are the mega rich who are manipulating the market. If you invested in Goldman at the beginnning of March you are sitting on a 70% return. Ford hasn't actually done anything to show that it can sell more cars but the stock has nearly tripled in the last month.
It is fantastic if you invested but it doesn't make any sense. Some people won the lottery, they invested at the right time based on nothing but luck of the draw. All it took was a bogus inside letter at a bank.
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4-10-2009 @ 8:05PM
Bill Couture said...
Looking at it one way stocks are way up. Looking at it another and they have regained about 10% of what they lost. I think the 2nd is the better way to look at things just now. Many of the stock prices are ridiculously low. People through out the good with the bad. I think we'll see the market crawl back up to 10,000 over the next few years.
4-12-2009 @ 9:27AM
William Ecton said...
Were you this upset when the Dow was losing 4-5% in one day? When businesses were closing their doors? Some lost more than 90% and it took less than 6 months. So when it goes the other way, that is not right?
4-10-2009 @ 11:02AM
P. Rockwell said...
Are these the same economists who NEVER saw the recession coming? the same ones who say "BUY, BUY, BUY"? when people have no money? The blind leading the blind.
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