As earnings season begins, Nomura economist Sheard is 'optimistic'
Filed under: Company News, Economy, People, Earnings
Aluminum maker Alcoa reported a first-quarter net loss, kicking off six weeks of earnings results that will signal the direction of the U.S. economy.The question investors want answered: What's next? Nomura chief global economist Paul Sheard told DailyFinance he's "optimistic" about economic growth later this year. "The worst is behind us," he said. Contraction in the U.S. economy was minus 6.1 percent in last year's fourth quarter and the first quarter of 2009 was a "bad quarter."
"When we get the data, it's just going to be telling us, 'yes that's a lousy quarter,'" Sheard said in a telephone interview.
There have been some "positive signs" that made investors more comfortable over the past few weeks, he said. After speaking with other economists while in Basel, Switzerland last week, Sheard feels he's more optimistic than most of his peers.
"We're not bullish, but we're a bit more positive than others," he said Tuesday about his firm's forecast, which sees the U.S. "recession coming to an end" and the economy "starting to expand a bit."
It's "difficult" to see a turning point coming out of recession and the second-half could be weaker than anticipated, Sheard told DailyFinance. That said, he is looking for growth in the last six months of 2009.
In order for the financial crisis, seen late last year, to re-ignite, he said, "there would have to be a new shock or a new loss of confidence."
Minus that shock, investors will focus on earnings and company forecasts.
In coming weeks companies will tell shareholders how much was sold and whether profits or losses accumulated. They'll also give detailed outlooks for the current and coming quarter.
By the end of next month, U.S. investors may know if the worst is in their rear-view mirrors.
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Reader Comments (Page 1 of 2)
4-08-2009 @ 3:28PM
camdam said...
Oh yeah? Well, my monkey says different.
Reply
4-08-2009 @ 5:24PM
kentenfarm said...
Your monkey is telling no lie.
4-08-2009 @ 5:24PM
Marge said...
The ecomony is just a balancng act and I mean act. It is Spring and the gas prices drop and the furnace is off so the $75.00 people saved are being used on seasonally items.
No snow plowing for states so they can spend on supplies and things. Also the states are saving n heating oil and welfare benefit heating oil for the assisted people.
People are turning off their home phones so that frees up some coins. No doctor co-pay as people who do not have insurance are going to free clients or universities clinic.s.
Haircuts only on special days or just plain delays. Changes in eating habits no more "special restuarants" and thrift shops hurrah.
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4-08-2009 @ 5:24PM
John said...
Bankers are more dangerous to our liberties than standing armies . . . If the American people ever allow the Federal Reserve private bank to control the issue of their currency, first by inflation, then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around them. . . will deprive the people of all property until their children wake-up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered . . . The issuing power should be taken from the banks and restored to the people, to whom it properly belongs.!...Were President & Senator Kennedy Xinated because they were trying to Get rid of the Federaal Reserve,organized Crime, et al, Enemy's of Our Country and now the World ?.
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4-08-2009 @ 10:39PM
Duke said...
That may Mr. Sheard's view, but I have been out of work for almost a year. It will be another year I will be out of work. One reason I am out of work yet is because I will not work in a union shop. The other is age discrimination. I am 55 and at that age with a large pool of unemployed, the employers will pick the 20 somethings over us older guys in a New York minute. I still will not rely on a union to do my fighting for me. I will continue to look for manual labor and keep looking. There will be a company that will be glad they hired me eventually. I work and do not play the lazy card.
Reply
4-09-2009 @ 10:46AM
walt said...
well your the republicans dream constituent'
if you worked in a union shop and you aren't aware of the health and pension beneifits to every union member and if you would have lowered your self 15 years ago you would have senority and probably 'being smart enough 'a lead position 'alas you stay unemployed and better off than all those lowered union guys &gals .
you have the last laugh
4-09-2009 @ 10:49AM
Anthony Massucci said...
Duke, I bet you do.
Good luck! Hope you find something soon.
4-08-2009 @ 5:25PM
Joe said...
I'm with the monkey. Please save our country. The constitution is being trashed. Go to www.tenthamendmentcenter.com/
Reply
4-08-2009 @ 6:25PM
tom said...
The only thing that's going to grow in the economy for next several years will be the unemployed. That should be close to 30% by the end of 2010
The G20 moves the world a step closer to a global currency
Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
Telegraph
April 8, 2009
A single clause in Point 19 of the communiqué issued by the G20 leaders amounts to revolution in the global financial order.
%u201CWe have agreed to support a general SDR allocation which will inject $250bn (£170bn) into the world economy and increase global liquidity,%u201D it said. SDRs are Special Drawing Rights, a synthetic paper currency issued by the International Monetary Fund that has lain dormant for half a century.
In effect, the G20 leaders have activated the IMF%u2019s power to create money and begin global %u201Cquantitative easing%u201D. In doing so, they are putting a de facto world currency into play. It is outside the control of any sovereign body. Conspiracy theorists will love it.
It has been a good summit for the IMF. Its fighting fund for crises is to be tripled overnight to $750bn. This is real money.
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4-08-2009 @ 6:32PM
gene said...
gee, do you think there`s any selfish motive behind these "economists" (read investment bankers)? they wouldnt want more people to fleece in the market would they? nahhhhh, these guys are real princes of principle, they wouldn`t make up s*** just to get richer, would they?
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4-09-2009 @ 10:45AM
tom said...
I had a neighbor who worked in non union job shops. He said he was too good a machinist to work in a union shop. When he retired he said he was foolish for he has no benefits. Just Medicare and social security. He is now broke, lost everything and is living with his wife's family.
Reply
4-09-2009 @ 10:46AM
eddrut said...
he was a good man & didn't want any thing for free way unions are the lazy mans
4-09-2009 @ 10:46AM
EH said...
NOTHING WRONG WITH UNIONS JUST GOP BULLCHYT WANT 2END UP ..BROKE .GO NONUNION .......C.OMPANIES DONT GIVE ARATS ASS ABOUT WHENTHERE BOTTOM LINE DOESNT ADD UP THEY PACK UP AND LEAVE LEAVING YOU PENNILESS BROKE AND HOMEL;ESS
Reply
4-09-2009 @ 10:46AM
DUKE said...
THESE ECONOMIST ARE JUST GUESSING. HOW CAN IT TURN AROUND? WHERE ARE THE MILLONS OF JOBS GOING TO COME FROM? IT IS A LIE IF ANYONE TELLS YOU THINGS WILL GET BETTER SOON. IT IS PROBABLY NEVER GOING TO RETURN TO WHERE IT WAS. THE U.S. WILL NEVER GO BACK TO A TRULY DEMOCRATIC NATION. THERE ARE TOO MANY NON PRODUCTIVE, ENTITLEMENT MINDED FOLLOWER WHO ARE BUYING INTO SOCIALISM WHERE THE GOVERNMENT RUNS EVERYTHING..
Reply
4-09-2009 @ 10:46AM
Frank said...
War on Success
Remember when the American Dream was not vilified? Ah, those were the days. You could start a company and make it grow -- and you were encouraged to do that. Now, if your company succeeds and gets big you are suddenly an evil corporate entity. LETS talks about this bizarre phenomena and explains how the mentality of our nation has gone from one of people who congratulate people who achieve the American dream to a nation of people who demonize those who achieve the American dream. Who started the madness?
Reply
4-09-2009 @ 10:46AM
COMMON MAN said...
I will close gitmo, has it been done yet. No. I will not raise taxes. My taxes just went up April the first. I will bring ower troops home. Has it been done yet. No. The only thing that the America people dont get is someone with a little creditalability. The justice system in this country is in the same condition as the goverment. For money we can pass laws to take your retirement. For money we can pass laws to to take any thing we want. I will say anything to get elected, and when I am elected I will give away anything to stay in office. Now go labor, and I will reap the benifits.
Reply
4-09-2009 @ 10:47AM
Marc said...
There will be no recovery until foreclosures cease and unemployment reaches normal levels. Period. End of Story.
Reply
4-09-2009 @ 10:50AM
Anthony Massucci said...
Marc,
Well said.
4-09-2009 @ 10:47AM
user said...
# 4 JOHN....let me refrase this....American bankers are more dangerous than animals.....after all it is AMERICAN bankers who started this whole mess in the world...it spread
throughout the world from YOU'R country. Face up and fess up....Obama was right and at least somewhat humble, unlike the rest of you ignorant people. The start and fueling
of the fire came from the USA and nobody else.
Reply
4-09-2009 @ 10:47AM
usages said...
# 12 Frank.....your written word's ring so true. There is a war on success from the LOW IQ American's who is sitting on there Duff.... btching and complaining when things where good and lived paycheck to paycheck with the latest gadget's around the house. Disneyland trips.... charged to the credit card.... amongst other things. The Hustler and hardworking well to do get sneared at for there smarts and hindsight's. It's the ignorance this country has and there is NO cure for it.
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