Divorce Calculator shows odds your marriage will last
byNov 29th 2008 12:00PM
Marriage may be hard work, but divorce can be financially cataclysmic. Can't happen to you,? That kind of denial is one reason that divorce brings about economic disaster, since planning for that eventuality seems disloyal. Nonetheless, 43% of first marriages in the U.S. end within 15 years, according to the CDC. One in five will end within five years, one in three with ten years.
The statistics vary according to a number of variables, and divorce360.com has created a Marriage Calculator (which I'd call a divorce calculator) that, based on the averages taken from census data, will give you odds on your marriage lasting. Enter gender, date of marriage, education, age when married, and number of years married to calculate the estimate.
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- If you are a male high-school dropout married after 1980, at the age of 20 or younger, and have been married for five years --13% of people with your background have already divorced, and 26% will be divorced over the next five years.
- If you are a female without children married after 1980 with a high school diploma who was 22 to 24 at the time of your marriage and have been married two years so far -- 2% of those with similar backgrounds have divorced already, and 13% more will do so over the next five years.
- Female with kids, married 1960-1979, college grad, married at 23 or 24, and have been married now for 30 years-- 28% of those sharing your background have already divorced, and 2% more will divorce over the next five years.
I'm pleased to report that 0% of those sharing my background will divorce in the next five years.
Of course, these are very coarse projections, but if you are in a category with high divorce rates, you might want to learn a little more about why marriages fail so you can head off possible destructive conflicts.